Which languages will the Europeans speak in 2025?
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Written by LEAP/E2020
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Sunday, 04 November 2007
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 Tribune:
Throughout the month of November Newropeans-Magazine will publish in a privileged way all your articles* responding to the paper published by LEAP/E2020 "Which languages will the Europeans speak in 2025?" Send your contributions to:
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Which languages will the Europeans speak in 2025? Heavy trends in the EU's new linguistic equilibriums in one generation from now...
- For at least a decade, LEAP/E2020 has been conducting in-depth grass root-studies on the heavy trends affecting Europe's linguistic sphere.
Beyond the mere cultural interest conveyed by these studies, LEAP/E2020 sees them as powerful decision assistance tools intended for individuals (parents, for the education of their children) as much as for collective groups (educational public institutions, universities, states, international companies). Individual and collective strategies as regards language education are long-term processes based on fundamental choices made at least one generation earlier. Mistakes of anticipation are paid a big price: complete inadequacy between linguistic offer and demand, between a population's language literacy and its socio-economic linguistic needs (in terms of commercial, cultural, scientific and political exchanges).
These anticipations also have important connections with the political evolution of the EU, as indeed languages are no neutral communication instruments, but convey comprehensive visions of society and the world. Lastly, future trends in this field enable to identify more clearly the large-scale modifications that are about to affect the European project (1).
The evolution of Europe's great linguistic equilibriums of course largely depends on the global trends in this field (2); but, as a result of its democratic structure, of its demographic weight (500 million citizens), of its linguistic diversity and of the oldness of its languages, the EU presents a specific linguistic environment, moved by its own internal laws and anchored in a long history of linguistic interactions.
According to LEAP/E2020, Europe's linguistic evolution in the next twenty years is therefore determined by two fundamental historical constraints and five strategic factors.
A- Two fundamental historical constraints
1. Populations in the end always manage to impose their language on their elites.
2. Languages are moved by international dynamics involving the power and attractiveness of the culture they belong to.
1. Gradual disappearing of Latin (from the XVIth centurty onward), relinquishing of French (from the XIXth century onward), weakening of German (after 1945) and Russian (after 1989),… Europe's modern history provides many illustrations of the way populations systematically impose their language onto their elites, and contradict their attempt to adopt (more or less free-willingly) foreign languages. The democratic nature of each EU member state strengthens even more the peoples' « enduring omnipotence » when it comes to languages. In corollary to this constraint, these elites' opinions or wishes have no lasting impact and therefore no capability to plan or anticipate the linguistic future of the EU. On the other hand, it is a natural feature of these elites to often seek for means to differentiate themselves from the « people »; thus, they are naturally tempted to adopt or make use of foreign languages in order to mark their difference.
2. The second constraint enables to define the calendar of the evolution imposed by the first constraint. The gradual (sometimes sudden) weakening of the power and attractiveness of a dominant language's underlied culture determines the speed and scope of rise of the new popular choice: whether it is in favour of its own national language or in favour of a new dominant language.
This double constraint thus defines the operational framework of forthcoming linguistic evolutions in the EU.
- B- Five strategic factors
LEAP/E2020 identified five key factors that will shape the linguistic face of the European Union in a generation from now:
1. The great return of German: The end of Europe's division, the reconstitution of Central Europe, and the fading away of the post-WWII era makes way for German to re-emerge as one of the great trans-European languages by 2025. The ongoing democratisation of the European Union (meaning the growing involvement of the European public opinion in decision making processes) directly serves the importance of German, a language spoken by over 100 million « natives ».
2. The revival of French: The significant demographic growth of France (and French-speaking countries where a large part of EU immigrants come from) is key in the revival of French as a major trans-European language. With some 80 million « native » French-speakers (fastly growing), French is already the EU's second mother-tongue.
The fading away of the post-1939/1945 era, which initiated the collapse of the French language's attractiveness as the political language of the elites (3), plays a positive role in French's renewed vitality.
3. The end of English (Anglo-American) as the hegemonic language of modernity: The end of the world order born after 1945 signalled by the ongoing collapse of US influence, suppresses the main motivation to the use of English (or rather, American) in Europe (and worldwide). The trend is strengthened by the weakening of Anglo-American on its own territory: in the US, Spanish is the ascending language to the detriment of English in many states; in the UK, the rise of Celtic languages conveyed by the claims of independent or separatist movements in Ireland, Wales and Scotland, erodes the share of English on the British Isles (only the third mother-tongue spoken in the EU, fastly decreasing). Over the next twenty years, on the European continent, Anglo-American will survive in the “niche” of international languages as a popular common language based on a very limited vocabulary. - 4. The entry of Russian into Europe's linguistic « purgatory »: Rejected because of its authoritative imposition on ex-communist Europe after 1945, Russian will remain for at least ten more years a language under-spoken in the EU for political reasons. But, in the event of a peaceful EU-Russia relationship, possibly reinforced by a successful strategic partnership, LEAP/E2020 forecasts that Russia will grow as THE slavish common language of the EU from 2015 onward. This evolution might not be reflected at the institutional level (Russian will not become an official language of the EU) but it will be a grass-root fact all over the Eastern part of the EU.
5. The growth of Spanish as an international language: The growth of Spanish as the international European language will not go along with its growth as a dominant trans-European language. Indeed, the growing part played by Latin America worldwide and the fast extension of Spanish-speaking territories in North America, result in Spanish being one of the three major European international languages, next to English and French (themselves supported by large linguistic pools located outside the EU). Nevertheless the small amount of Spanish-speakers inside the EU, the linguistic fragmentation going on in Spain (Basque country and Catalonia) and the existence of another Latin language (French) among the dominant trans-European languages will prevent Spanish from reaching this status until at least 2025.
All the trends described above will be strengthened by the increasing demand for intra-European communication, entailing the rise of a number of individual and collective players unable to resort to costly translation systems, therefore in need of some « passive » command (understanding) of foreign languages, facilitated by the use of languages from a same linguistic family. Simultaneously, the other dominant trend will consist in resorting more and more to systems of automatic translation in order to circulate multilingual texts to a large scale for limited costs.
To conclude, though the linguistic matrix of the EU by 2025 will stay in line with Umberto Eco's « Translation is the language of Europe », LEAP/E2020 is able to draw a clear (though moving, according to the fields of activity) linguistic picture of Europe based on the vitality of national and regional languages, whatever today's EU elites may think (4):
1. Four dominant trans-European languages, English-German-French-Russian, out of which three only will be official (Russian won't) and two will be the selective languages of EU elites in twenty years from now (French and German, since English will no longer be positively discriminating).
2. Three international European languages, English-French-Spanish.
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Last Updated ( Monday, 05 November 2007 )
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Non ce n'est pas une affiche de campagne en Turquie, mais bien celle du parti socialiste autrichien (SPÖ) pour les élections d'octobre prochain à Vienne. Après les affiches de campagne de Strache qui plaide pour le " pur sang viennois" c'est la course au populisme?
Wien-Wahl: Politiker sprechen türkisch: 200.000 Neoösterreicher Wähler haben Migrationshintergrund. Die Parteien buhlen um ihre Stimmen - gerne auch in einer Fremdsprache.( Kurier 25/08/2010)
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La deuxième rencontre du cycle
“LA DEMOCRATIE EN DANGER”,
consacrée à la Justice en Europe
Le lundi 13 septembre
de 19h30 à 22h00
Salons de l’Aveyron
17 Rue de l'Aubrac
75012 Paris
 A l’heure où les discours et les mesures sécuritaires et judiciaires se durcissent dans nombreux pays européens, où l’on sait les atteintes aux droits les plus élémentaires et aux principes fondamentaux des simples citoyens, quels traitements sont réservés à ceux qui tiennent les pouvoirs politiques, financiers, économiques entre leurs mains? Une conférence-débat organisée dans le cadre du cycle La démocratie en danger par Les Amis de Beppe Grillo à Paris et le NewropMag.
Intervenants: les députés européens Luigi De Magistris, Sonia Alfano et Rosario Crocetta ; Harald Greib, vice-président de Newropeans en charge des affaires des institutions européennes ; Eric Alt, magistrat, membre de l’association MEDEL (magistrats européens pour la démocratie et les libertés) et de l’association Anticor, et Corinne Lepage, députée européenne et ex Ministre de l’environnement, engagée dans la lutte contre la corruption politique et financière.
Parmi les sujets de discussion:
- L'infiltration des organisations criminelles et le vide législatif relatif en Europe
- Les récentes dépénalisations des crimes financiers et économiques en Italie, en France et leur traitement au sein des institutions européennes
- Présomption d'innocence ou de culpabilité? L'exemple de la “loi bâillon” sur les écoutes téléphoniques qui viole les recommandations de l’OSCE concernant l’emploi de sources et de matériels nécessaires aux investigations journalistiques au service de la démocratie.
Contacts:
Micaela Bracciaferri, Coordinatrice “Les Amis de Beppe Grillo à Paris »
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Marianne Ranke-Cormier, Rédactrice en chef du NewropMag
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