Iran – the International Community at the Crossroads (3)

The interest of the developed Western states is clear although a different picture is presented to the general public. There should be no global economic crisis since that would have negative implications practically for the whole world. Perhaps only some non-democratic dictatorship regimes would profit from such crisis as they are anyway in a poor economic situation and would only celebrate the fact that others are doing bad, too.  Iran's nuclear programme should therefore be stopped. It was easy to come to this conclusion, but the problem is "How?". President Ahmadinejad has already gone very far in his rhetoric and it will be difficult for him to withdraw to a more sensible attitude. The US President has also gone relatively far in his rhetoric and for him, too, will be difficult to retreat to the border of compromise. The USA determinedly insist (with somewhat less determined support from others) that Iran should stop uranium enrichment. Iran has stated several times very decisively and loudly that it is under no conditions ready to stop uranium enrichment. Both sides hope that time will do its work and that they can benefit from negotiations, presentations of ideas, programmes etc. The USA believe that if together with the EU, Russia and China they use the carrot and stick strategy Iran will eventually, after long talks, agree to stop uranium enrichment. But Iran demands a huge carrot, since with the present crude oil prices and increased gas demands it is not facing economic difficulties, but the failure to fulfil the national pride and the promises would wash away Ahmadinejad together with his followers. Although by constantly accepting negotiations Iran is seemingly gaining time, the fact is that the compromise can only be achieved if one side makes sweeping concessions - but those concessions would have to be so profound that the political survival of those making them would be endangered. This leaves no space for a compromise solution: Iran either continues uranium enrichment or not. There is no middle road. The USA and others either accept that Iran continues those activities or not. There is no middle road here either. The status quo remains: The USA (and the large part of the international community) uncompromisingly insist that Iran stop the nuclear programme (in its territory) while Iran uncompromisingly insists on continuing the nuclear programme. Both sides have gone so far in their political acts and rhetorics that it is impossible for them to return without suffering devastating political damage.