June 2006 – Beginning of phase 2 of the global systemic crisis: the phase of acceleration
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Written by LEAP/E2020
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Monday, 15 May 2006
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Seven concrete consequences for economic and political players and decision-makers
Last February, LEAP/E2020 anticipated that a global systemic crisis was to be triggered at the end of March. Today, three months later, LEAP/E2020 can anticipate that the initial phase of this crisis is about to be finished and that, as soon as the beginning of June 2006, the crisis will enter a phase of acceleration. Before detailing the main features of this new phase (described in GEAB Nr5), LEAP/E2020 would like to clarify the 4 different phases of a global systemic crisis.
A global systemic crisis develops following a complex process where 4 phases can be distinguished, overlapping one another: • in the first so-called “trigger” phase, a variety of until then un-related factors, start converging and interacting in a way that is perceptible mostly by careful observers and central players • in the second “acceleration” phase, a large majority of players and observers suddenly become aware that a crisis is there and that it has already begun to affect a growing amount of the system’s components • in the third so-called “impact” phase, the system starts to transform radically (implosion and/or explosion) under the strain of cumulated factors, simultaneously affecting the whole system • in the fourth and last “decanting” phase, the features of the new system born from the crisis begin to appear. In the present situation, LEAP/E2020 estimates that the initial trigger-phase is about to finish and that, during June 2006, the world will enter a phase of acceleration of the crisis. Indeed, in less than three months, many certainties as to the future were turned upside down (« inescapable » dollar-denomination, « return » to cheap oil, « peaceful » solution to the Iran/USA conflict, « sustainability » of the US real-estate bubble, US « domination » over two other key global players – China and Russia,…) and a great number of indicators now point at converging directions, all of them sources of unbalance for the current system (vertiginous rise in gold and precious metals prices, escalation of inflationary pressures, increase of the interest rates, EURUSD approaching 1.30, large amounts of central banks’ reserves being switched to Euros, rise of Asian currencies, stock market and currency crises developing in various areas in the world, growing amounts of articles published in the international and national press using words such as « krach, crisis, collapse, risk, conflict, … » ).  Figure 1 - Evolution Dow Jones/M3 --- Dow Jones/Gold - source : www.sirchartsalot.com
According to LEAP/E2020, this « trigger-phase » can be seen as a « learning » phase for the system’s players. Some of them properly anticipated the evolution and bet on a breakdown of dominant trends. While they still seemed marginal and irrational to the majority a few weeks ago, they now appear to have « won » when the majority has « lost » following the system’s “normal” trends. This “lesson” conveys cumulative effects and soon considerably strengthens all breakdown tendencies, resulting in switching from trigger-phase to acceleration-phase. It also reinforces the conviction of the strategic players who got involved into breakdown policies (or who anticipated the breakdown), and weakens in a sustainable way all regulation capacities of the system now faced to a soon generalized crisis of confidence. Well, in the current system, one inherited from WWI and transformed by the fall of the Iron Curtain, whether it is in the financial, economic, monetary or strategic sector, everything relies on the trust granted by each of us to one central player (the US) and to the different components of its might. The passage from phase 1 to phase 2 marks the collapse of this trust, sector by sector.  Figure 2- Saisies immobilières aux Etats-Unis
LEAP/E2020 therefore estimates that these sectoral losses of confidence will converge in the course of June 2006, and induce the acceleration of the crisis process. The acceleration should elapse over 3 to 6 months and convey seven concrete consequences: 1. accelerated collapse of the Dollar 2. internal social and political crisis in the US 3. Iran/USA/Israel military conflict 4. increased global inflation 5. stop of the process of trade and economic globalisation 6. accelerated emergence of new regional/continental « blocks » 7. rebalancing of world assets’ comparative value. The passage to phase 3 (so-called « impact-phase ») of the global systemic crisis process will occur when at least four of the previously mentioned factors will have taken place. Simultaneously, it is possible, during the acceleration-phase already, to distinguish some of the tendencies that will shape up the future global system, and therefore to start initiating the decisions and policies likely to prepare a post-crisis future.
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Last Updated ( Monday, 22 January 2007 )
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Non ce n'est pas une affiche de campagne en Turquie, mais bien celle du parti socialiste autrichien (SPÖ) pour les élections d'octobre prochain à Vienne. Après les affiches de campagne de Strache qui plaide pour le " pur sang viennois" c'est la course au populisme?
Wien-Wahl: Politiker sprechen türkisch: 200.000 Neoösterreicher Wähler haben Migrationshintergrund. Die Parteien buhlen um ihre Stimmen - gerne auch in einer Fremdsprache.( Kurier 25/08/2010)
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La deuxième rencontre du cycle
“LA DEMOCRATIE EN DANGER”,
consacrée à la Justice en Europe
Le lundi 13 septembre
de 19h30 à 22h00
Salons de l’Aveyron
17 Rue de l'Aubrac
75012 Paris
 A l’heure où les discours et les mesures sécuritaires et judiciaires se durcissent dans nombreux pays européens, où l’on sait les atteintes aux droits les plus élémentaires et aux principes fondamentaux des simples citoyens, quels traitements sont réservés à ceux qui tiennent les pouvoirs politiques, financiers, économiques entre leurs mains? Une conférence-débat organisée dans le cadre du cycle La démocratie en danger par Les Amis de Beppe Grillo à Paris et le NewropMag.
Intervenants: les députés européens Luigi De Magistris, Sonia Alfano et Rosario Crocetta ; Harald Greib, vice-président de Newropeans en charge des affaires des institutions européennes ; Eric Alt, magistrat, membre de l’association MEDEL (magistrats européens pour la démocratie et les libertés) et de l’association Anticor, et Corinne Lepage, députée européenne et ex Ministre de l’environnement, engagée dans la lutte contre la corruption politique et financière.
Parmi les sujets de discussion:
- L'infiltration des organisations criminelles et le vide législatif relatif en Europe
- Les récentes dépénalisations des crimes financiers et économiques en Italie, en France et leur traitement au sein des institutions européennes
- Présomption d'innocence ou de culpabilité? L'exemple de la “loi bâillon” sur les écoutes téléphoniques qui viole les recommandations de l’OSCE concernant l’emploi de sources et de matériels nécessaires aux investigations journalistiques au service de la démocratie.
Contacts:
Micaela Bracciaferri, Coordinatrice “Les Amis de Beppe Grillo à Paris »
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Marianne Ranke-Cormier, Rédactrice en chef du NewropMag
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