Portugal: turning left

Portuguese people were anxiously awaiting the election day to choose a new Parliament and Prime Minister and to dismiss an embarrassing and all but clarifying electoral campaign which was omgoing since 6^th February. The campaign leitmotivs rarely diverged from the personal attacks exchanged between the political leaders and the discussion of parallel issues like the abortion referendum or the homosexual rights which tended to dominate the interviews and debates. At margin stayed the real life issues that the Portuguese would like to see debated: the economic problems affecting the lives of a great part of the population and which are mining the convergence possibilities toward the socioeconomic European standards.

Truthfully, the discussion sometimes touched some points of these issues but none of the different parties was clear and convincing in the ways it intended to invert some of the most serious economic problems the country faces: a public debt of 60% of the GDP that has been growing since the second half of previous decade, a budget deficit which stayed between 2003 and 2005 around the 5% of the GDP*, an unemployment rate that reached 7.1% in the fourth trimester of 2004 (the highest since the last six years), a current and capital account deficit that reached 10 million euros in the end of 2004, and a loss of competitiveness and a poor growth of economic productivity in the last decade. More disturbing than that was the similarity of the priorities established by the main parties – PSD, governing since 2002 in alliance with the Christian Democrats - Popular Party (CDS-PP), and the opposition party: PS. In their electoral programs the Portuguese couldn’t find many clues about the methods through which those parties were proposing to resolve the country’s problems but could read the same speech about the same objectives of downsize and rationalize the public administration, increase the investment in R&D, devote attention to the pre-scholar education, reduce the public spending and proceed the fight against the fraud and fiscal evasion, reduce unemployment, create new jobs, increase labour qualification and ratify the European Constitutional Treaty after a national referendum.

In spite of the blurred differences between the electoral programs and proposals of PS and PSD, the Portuguese went the latter Sunday to the ballot boxes with a very distinguishing thought in mind: the six months of clumsy governing by the prior Prime Minister Santana Lopes after Durão Barroso’s depart to the European Commission. So, between a vote for the continuity and a vote for an alternative from which the only known certainty was that this will not bring back the man in charge, the Portuguese chose change. In a considerably participated election (with 35% of abstention, a fall of 2.5% considering the 2002 results) the Socialist Party and all the Left achieved the highest results in the history of Portuguese democracy (45% of votes to PS and 59% of votes in leftist parties globally). In this way, the Parliament obtained an inedit configuration with 141 of its 230 deputies seating in the left wing of the hemicycle. On the other hand, right-wing parties obtained the worst result ever: PSD achieved 28,7% of votes, lost 22 deputies and about half a million of voters and CDS-PP obtained 7,27% of votes, loosing 1.5% and 2 deputies. Both party leaders proclaimed they intend to leave the party leadership, assuming personally this electoral defeat.

These achievements can’t be evaluated by the leftists with excessive euphoria as some analysts are warning. Certainly it is a historic result and to some extent a vote of confidence in the Socialist Party and its leader and future Prime Minister José Sócrates. But above everything and in opposition of what Sócrates declared in his victory speech, these results were more an expression of the protest and anger at the status quo than a real and consistent turn to the left by the Portuguese electorate. In the same way the majority gave its vote to PS it can take it back again. The next electoral exercises where the Socialist can feel the electorate’s pulse will take place in a few months – the local municipal elections are scheduled to October and, then, in January 2006 a new President of the Republic will be chosen (it is important to remember these legislative elections were the result of a presidential decree). Till then, Sócrates and the government he will choose this week will be under the spotlight as they try to step forward to counter the serious economic and social crisis. Significant leeway was handed in a silver plate, let us hope for wise action.

* Data from the Banco de Portugal Economic Bulletin (December 2004).

Sílvia Lima
Lisbon, Portugal

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