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The US endgame is about demographics

The decline of the social, economic and political situation in the United States will accelerate under Donald Trump’s term. The mainstream media are portraying his administration as a disaster and accusing him of destroying America’s standing in the world by moves such as withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement. The truth is that Trump’s presidency and the attendant political turmoil are the symptoms of a decaying nation rather than the cause, it merely proves that the American people have had enough of the Washington government and it shows their deep distrust of the American mainstream media. Donald Trump too, is a part of the establishment, so it came as no surprise that Steve Bannon and his “populist” platform (that won him the presidency) was removed from the White House and the President embraced the military complex (that nobody voted for) represented by the likes of John Kelly, H.R. McMaster and John Mattis. His base starts to crack as they burn the “Let’s Make America Great Again“ cap as a symbol of protest on Twitter and high profile supporters such as Ann Coulter turn against his policy. With the removal of Steve Bannon the US will continue its usual policy, which means that its public debt will increase indefinitely. The fight between the media and the White House is a distraction from the real problems: Trump’s budget can only work if tax revenue is twice as much as it is now, a doubling of social security spending while military spending increases, to wit 50%. The US will try to continue its so called “preponderance” military strategy as we will explain. Even if the Trump administration is able to build a wall between Mexico and the US, mass-migration has to continue to create 5% economic growth.

Gefira #16 is available for only 25 Euros Gefira research expect that the downfall of the West will start in 2020. The financial and political planners should only worry about the demographics. In 2015 the European populations began to shrink, and for that, the economy will never fully recover, the financial markets will crumble, and the maintenance of large armies are impossible. Gerfira #16: The US Endgame.

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Ethnic tensions and Trump’s militarist flirt: the decline of the West accelerates.

How many times in history has a regime facing internal difficulties sought military adventures to “unite people behind the flag”? This time, it’s America’s turn.
The first 6 months of the Trump presidency have been characterised by an increase in ethnic tensions as US demographic shifts towards “white minority” with a significant ”Hispanic” population. The demographic change has been hailed by the Democratic Party and corporate America which promptly adopted ”identity politics” as a core ideology, exalting the individual if he (or she) belongs to an ethnic, religious or sexual minority: in practice, however, this translates into depicting “Blacks” and “Hispanics” as “oppressed”, “whites” as “oppressors” and “Asians” as “too good”, which is why discrimination against them in academic admissions is justified. Inevitably the vilification of the whites paved the way for “pride” demonstrations and the return of “white nationalism” as evidenced by the recent Charlottesville clashes.

The next step in the trade war against the United States

After the European Union has failed to implement TIPP and the European Parliament has barely accepted the controversial CEFTA against a backdrop of numerous protests, Brussels is letting in another Trojan Horse through the back door and is doing it secretly.

Since the TTIP has failed, the EU just had to think up a new monstrosity: JEFTA, an agreement on free trade with Japan that is about to be finalized and that hardly anybody has heard about despite the four-year negotiations. On July 6 the EU Commission and Japan decided to complete the JEFTA agreement. It is outrageous that the EU citizens have scarcely been informed about it. The same was true of TTIP and CEFTA: people only learnt about it when huge protests were staged. So also now the most important documents concerning JEFTA have only been made known to us through a leak affair.

As for now the trade between Japan and the EU is burdened with customs duties that amount to one billion euros annually. Thanks to the prospective abolition of customs duties the Toyotas and Hondas should become cheaper in Europe whereas the Japanese might be able to eventually afford French cheese and champagne. Sounds good, or does it? We describe below in short how dangerous the agreement is:

Methane clathrates: another revolution in the gas-industry in the making?

Flammable ice, as sometimes methane clathrates (or hydrates) are called, lately has become an important issue for global powers. Attaining technology making it possible to extract resource from deposits, which haven’t been up to now taken into consideration may change the face of world economy and influence the prices of LNG.

To many, methane clathrates sound unfamiliar so lets explain briefly what we’re talking about and why they haven’t been extracted yet. The hydrates emerge when molecules are surrounded by water, which becomes a sort of a cage for them. Such substance looks like ice and is present underneath the earth or underwater (yet, only there, where the appropriate tension and temperature exist). What’s important, when the conditions change, such clathrates become highly unstable and may cause huge explosions and, as a result, landslips and submarine landslides. That’s why any intrusion and extraction-attempts are extremely dangerous and complicated. However, mining tests have already been conducted for a few years. Though the estimates aren’t much reliable, it’s believed that methane hydrates contain more of gas than any other known fossil fuels put together. According to the US Energy Information Administration there may be even 2.800 trillion m3 of gas in hydrates, whereas the current global production equals up to 3.5 billion m3. So it’s possible that the extraction of clathrates would meet humanity’s demand for methane for another few hundred years.

How the elites are divorcing from reality: The Economist “what if”.

The Western globalist elites have not digested Trump’s victory or Brexit yet. They are having a hard time dealing with their ideological failures, and when the reality dares not to comply with their day dreaming, they go online and create a parallel world, where their “expert” predictions always turn right and their failures cannot be questioned. The Economist‘s portal named “what if”, a neo-liberal, wishful thinking echo chamber, is the point in case.

Its latest pieceattributes magical powers to the new hero of the elites, Emmanuel Macron, who soundly defeated “evil” Marine Le Pen in May. For The Economist, Macron is nothing short of Jesus as he was correspondingly depicted on the monthly’s cover walking on water:

In search of a new balance of power in Asia

The United States is signaling that it is going to limit its military presence in countries far away. Maybe Donald Trump listened to those realists who have suggested for a long time that America can uphold its superpower status only if it focuses on offshore balancing strategy. No matter what the intentions really are, the US government’s declarations result in redefining foreign policies of Asian states. The limitation of American presence changes the regional distribution of power, and forces other actors to assess their alliances and to search for new partners who might be an asset in case of conflict.

Changes in the balance of power in Asia
Until the US leaves Asia, the balance is preserved. The limitation of involvement suggested by Washington results in a search for new allies by all states in the region in order to level the capabilities. America’s withdrawal gives new opportunities to China, which can extend its sphere of influence and endanger Russia and India. However, the military threat won’t appear instantly. We’ll probably witness an increase in economic penetration. The economic imperialism resulting in power maximization may be the indicator of growing revisionism understood as a policy aimed at bringing down the actual status quo in Asia and establishing a new order.

Wherever you look, you see a real property bubble

Too high prices on the real property market only concern allegedly the rich and and popular cities. When you consider the case more closely, the bubble risk appears to be threatening also emerging economies.

Rumour about the real property bubble is spreading far and wide in Great Britain, Scandinavia and the Netherlands.In its report for the last year, UBS listed Vancouver, London, Stockholm, Sydney and Munich among the cities with especially inflated prices.

The reports hardly ever mention that one of the decisive factors causing the rise in prices are the open borders and the excessive immigration. For instance in London alone there live approximately 300 000 Russians who invest, mostly illegal money, in real property.Apart from Russians it is also the Chinese and people from Qatar who raise the property prices in the British capital and who have long taken over London’s City.

Will the inter-religious conflict escalate in India?

In February and March 2017 state elections were held in India. The greatest concern was shown towards those in Uttar Pradesh, which is the most populated region and, what’s also important, inhabited by a large Muslim minority. The elections were won by the Indian People’s Party (the BJP) under the leadership of present prime minister Narendra Modi. Because of his affiliation with religious and nationalist paramilitary organization Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) many raise the question whether there’s a risk of increase in Hindu extremist activities and the eruption of unrest similar to those in Gujarat in 2002, which resulted in death of several hundreds of Muslims.

The victory of the BJP is considered by inattentive analysts as an indication of a rise in nationalist attitudes in Hindu society. At the same time many researchers point out that the support for political right makes up 30%-40%. It is usually enough to win in a given constituency. Some assume correctly that the BJP won in those districts where Muslims didn’t exceed 45% of total population and lost to the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP Majority People’s Party) in 7 constituencies in which Muslims are the majority. The studies indicate that both this year’s and 2014 state assembly elections’ triumphs are an effect of the opposition’s weakness and its internal divisions, which result in the dispersion of votes. It’s important as one should remember that in India the “first past the post voting”, the candidate who receives most votes wins, is in force. It means that the winner in a certain constituency doesn’t have to be supported by at least 50% of voters. Such political forces as the BSP, which won multiple times in Uttar Pradesh, got 22% of the popular vote and barely 19 seats in the Legislative Assembly. The Indian National Congress’, secular social-liberal (Mahatma Gandhi), support totaled up to 6% and resulted in 7 seats.

Parrot of the Nations

At the turn of the 18th and 19th century it was fashionable among the intellectuals (lay or spiritual) to belong to a masonic lodge; in the 19th and 20th centuries they all saw it fit to advocate, support, and take part in the socialist movement (from Marx to Lenin to Trotsky to Mussolini to Stalin to Hitler to Piłsudski they all were socialists of one brand or another); today’s fashion that reigns supreme among the elites is globalism (another word for the well-known communist and socialist internationalism).

Central and East European countries from cradle have been parroting the fashion that is currently taking hold of the western minds. The aping was always belated and imperfect (which spared the latter huge social upheavals), but it has been the modus vivendi of the central and eastern European elites who have always, and I mean always, felt inferiority complex facing their western counterparts. Nothing has changed in this respect nowadays. The Eastern European elites desperately want to “belong”, they want to be “recognized”, “respectful” in the eyes of their Western role models, so they will go to all and any lengths to prove they are worthy of their cleverer western colleagues’ attention and praise.

What is today’s fashion? Migrants. If you want to prove that you “belong”, you need to desire the presence of migrants in your own country, cost it what it may, against the will of your own people. After all, who are they, those common people? Sheeple. Yes, sheeple, because elites of whatever brand, white or red, right or left, religious or irreligious have always had a patronizing and condescending attitude towards their compatriots, bigots, as they call them at best, rednecks at worst. And sheeple need to be told what is right and what is wrong. It is high moral ground to want to turn your country into a mix of races, creeds and languages; it is morally reprehensible not to want it. Understood?

The Saudi-Qatar rift has elements of world war potential

See page for author [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
See page for author [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
The First and the Second World War were the culmination of rivalries that go as far back as over a thousand years, when Charlemagne subjugated the Saxon tribes inhabiting modern Germany, and creating the Carolingian Empire. The political successors of Franks, France, and Saxons, the latter morphing into the Holy Roman Empire, then Prussia, then Germany, would continue to fight border wars until the bloodiest of them all, World War 2, inflicted enough destruction to both to force them to give up military means for the reciprocal arrangements.

The First World War was triggered by a regional episode, the assassination of the Archduke of Austria, Franz Ferdinand, by Serb nationalists that put in motion the alliance of the German world, Austria and Prussia against the British, French and Russian one.

Just like the two world wars in Europe were triggered by a single event, so can long standing, unresolved rivalries for power and influence over the Middle East result in the mother of all wars.
Qatar and Saudi Arabia have collaborated in the recent years to overthrow the Assad presidency in Syria and replace it with a Sunni Muslim leader that would allow the creation of a pipeline from Qatar to Europe, for the benefit of the Gulf countries.
The failure of the American-Saudi-Qatari coalition however re-opened old wounds. In the recent weeks, the Saudi-led bloc, including Jordan, Egypt and Bahrain has broken all ties with Qatar, accusing it of working with terrorist groups and having too close ties with Iran. Since then, having cashed in on the support of US President Trump, Saudis have given a list of 13 demands to Qatar, which the latter has no intention to comply with.

Effective treatment is contingent on accurate diagnosis

Western Europe due to an enormous influx of the Third-World people that has continued for decades is now a multicultural society. The Old Continent’s establishment wants to change the ethnic composition even more and makes no bones about it.

If we are told diversity is great, we may accept this proposition or dismiss it, but then we need to make an informed choice. Unfortunately, this question is highly emotionally laden and rather than look for facts, face them and then act on them, people generally shut their reasoning off and rely on wishful thinking from a never-never land. Problems can only be solved when accurately diagnosed or else we are doomed to grope in the dark and waste time and resources in an attempt to cure the social ills with an inadequate medicament; for inadequate it must be if it does not correspond to the disease at hand.

If we, Europeans, fall for the idea of being enriched by diversity, we must know what diversity really stands for. In order to learn what it stands for, we do not need to do social experiments: they have already been done in a variety of places in the world and throughout history. The United States is one good example as it is a multinational, multiracial country with a long history of integration, assimilation, and immigration. All we need to do is to learn from the experience of others. Only then can we make a decision whether or not we wish to follow in their footsteps.

Crime rates are one of the litmus tests whether or not a nation is healthy. The fact is that cohesive and prosperous societies have a low crime rate. Still, in the Western world nowadays it is generally not allowed to deal with the relation between ethnicity and crime. In 1987 a civil servant of the Amsterdam municipality mentioned that Moroccan youth delinquency was quite out of proportion to the percentage of that ethnicity in society. Many demanded his resignation, claiming his observations were racist. Still, the statistical evidence is too compelling to be ignored.

Gefira: Demographics and the consequence for economics and investments

We are at the dawn of profound demographic changes that will affect every investment. The Japanese population will shrink an astonishing 60% this century.

Europeans are trying to escape the same fate by repopulating the continent. All government data shows that the West as we know it will slowly disappear and while Europe is in full retreat, the population in Asia and Africa is exploding. The staggering number of new births in Africa will spell a human disaster and the Europeans will not be able to avert it. This process has already started and will change our world profoundly; investors and planners should take notice. This Gefira gives an outline of what is coming. Subscribe Subscribe