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A break-up of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia’s claims to legal authority over Kosovo will be the next setback for the European establishment. It is not a matter of if but rather when the war in the Balkans will resume. The consequences will be more detrimental to European stability than the Bosnia war in the nineties. A war in Bosnia will increase the tension between the Muslim and the native populations in West Europe, with the latter being more and more vocal in its opposition to the Islamisation of Europe.
The 1999 NATO bombardments of Belgrade forced the Serbian authorities to withdraw their troops from the province of Kosovo. Unlike Bosnia, Kosovo was an integral part of the Serbian Republic.1)Bosnia and Herzegovina was a constituent republic that together with Serbia, Macedonia, Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro made up Yugoslavia. Serbia in turn had two autonomous republics, Vojvodina in the north and Kosovo (and Metohija)in the south. Now it is questionable whether an autonomous republic is an integral part of something greater. It is another story that these two autonomous republics were carved out from Serbia by Tito/communists who, like communists everywhere in the world, also these in Brussels, hate nations and always try to split them up. By all international standards, the bombardments of Serbia were an illegal act of war. The European Union and Washington recognised Kosovo in 2008 as an independent state; 45% of the countries in the world did not follow suit, seeing the forced secession as a dangerous precedence incompatible with international law.2)International recognition of Kosovo, Wikipedia.To tell the truth, there is no such thing as international law; there is only international diplomacy where war is a strategic tool to bend the weaker party to the will of the stronger one.3)War is a mere continuation of policy by other means, On War Carl von Clausewitz.
Bosnia and Herzegovina was a constituent republic that together with Serbia, Macedonia, Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro made up Yugoslavia. Serbia in turn had two autonomous republics, Vojvodina in the north and Kosovo (and Metohija)in the south. Now it is questionable whether an autonomous republic is an integral part of something greater. It is another story that these two autonomous republics were carved out from Serbia by Tito/communists who, like communists everywhere in the world, also these in Brussels, hate nations and always try to split them up.
The events in Syria are changing rapidly. Turkey has entered Syria and is heading for Al-Bab, a city 35 kilometers from Aleppo, according to a Turkey government official and a statement issued by the Turkey-supported Muslim militia united in the FSA (Free Syrian Army).1)New target is western town of al-Bab, 6 km from Syrian army, Source Hurriyet Daily.The next step is lifting the siege of Aleppo from the east. Atatürk became the Father of all Turks after he had won the Battle of Gallipoli and defeated major European powers; Erdoğan will be the father of all Sunni Muslims if he liberates Aleppo and thus gains the upper hand over Russia and Iran.
Russia, the Kurds, and the Syrian army were very close to cutting off the Raqqa-Turkey supply route. Turkey’s invasion is a gift from heaven for the Jihadists in Raqqa: it prevents them from being cut off from Turkey. Turkey’s invasion of Syria is clearly to the advantage of ISIS.
Turkey’s objectives in Syria have always been clear and these are to:
1. prevent the Kurds from gaining autonomy, destroy the YPD, the sister organisation of the PKK, and 2. remove Assad from power.
The failed Western-backed coup against Tayyip Erdoğan has far-reaching geopolitical consequences.
That this coup was coming was known to the Americans, Europeans and President Erdoğan; In May the Wall-Street Journal wrote: “Speculation about a military coup reached a fever pitch in late March, when Turkish media reports suggested the Obama administration was trying to topple Mr. Erdoğan. The rumors led to a terse exchange at the State Department, where a Turkish reporter asked spokesman John Kirby whether the U.S. was working to bring down Mr Erdoğan.”1)Turkish Military’s Influence Rises Again, Wall Street Journal 2016-05-15.
In the chaotic moments and endless news feed about the Turkish coup, it became clear that Washington and the West did not support Erdogan.
After Hosni Mubarak, Muammar Gaddafi and Viktor Yanukovych it was now time to get rid of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. According to the Daily Sabah the coup was linked to the Gülenist Terror Organization (FETÖ), which has its leadership based in Washington.
The day after the failed coup, Western-based media tried to contain the damage and hurried to proclaim: “NATO Allies Rally Behind Erdogan as Turkish Coup Splits Military.1)NATO Allies Rally Behind Erdogan as Turkish Coup Splits Military Source Bloomberg 2016-07-16” They did not!
On Friday when the situation was very chaotic the White House website stated “The President spoke tonight by phone with Secretary of State John Kerry to discuss the events in Turkey. The President and Secretary agreed that all parties in Turkey should support the democratically-elected Government of Turkey, show restraint, and avoid any violence or bloodshed. The Secretary underscored that the State Department will continue to focus on the safety and security of U.S. citizens in Turkey. The President asked the Secretary to continue to keep him updated as the situation unfolds.” 2)Readout of the President’s Call with Secretary John Kerry Source The White Houes 2016-07-15
The announcement was purposefully vague nor was it made by the president himself; in the text of the White House, there was no reference or any direct support for Erdogan or outright condemnation of the coup. The “democratically-elected Government” as stated in the announcement does not include Erdogan as President. Of course, if the White House did support the democracy, the text should read: “democratically-elected Government and the President.”
The coup leaders said they’d done so in the name of protecting democracy, and this is in line with the statement of the White House.
Currently, less than half of the EU’s gas demand is met by domestic production. The rest is imported, mainly from Norway (36%), Russia (41%) and Algeria (10%). In recent years, LNG, or liquefied natural gas, has accounted for around 10% of the imports, with most of them coming from Qatar, Algeria, and Nigeria.
The Syrian war has been spilled over into Turkey. The Kurdish fighters are now the preferred weapon recipients of the West. The US, Germany, The Netherlands and UK are supplying Kurdish fighter with arms and training.
Turkish Tank Gets Hit While Shelling Cizre
Not only the Pesmerga in Northern Iraq, governed by president Barzani, a key US ally in the region, but also the Syrian Kurdish factions, who are ran by the Socialist Democratic Union Party (PYD), are armed by the US. The Syrian Kurdish militias solely promised not to hand over the US supplied weapons to their PKK brothers in Turkey. There is no way to control this and the Turkish state media “Daily Sabah” already complains that Germany are delivering arms and training PKK insurgents.
Erdogan is now transforming Turkey into an Islafascistic state: a mixture of extreme nationalism combined with Islamism, a strong leader, backed by a strong army.
The tension between the USA and Russia has grown enormously over the couple of months. The case of yet another Russian jet shot down by Turkey pushed Ankara into the American embrace. Iran and Syria has stood by Moscow, the guarantor of their independence of the Western powers. Turkey, faced with no real choice, decided to throw in her lot with the USA. Wasn’t it the Allies that won in World War One? Was Turkey not defeated then because she backed the wrong horse? So Erdogan, Turkey’s president for life, has taken his decision: let the Americans make use of Kanal İstanbul and move their fleet into the Black Sea. The Montreux Convention forbidding passage of navies through the Bosporus does not apply. It is not the Bosporus, it is Kanal İstanbul. The year is 2023, the canal has just been completed.
That might be a scenario playing out in the nearest future. If. If the idea for cutting a waterway through the mainland will have materialized within several years from now.
It was a political decision to down the Su-24, and it reflected more the growing impatience on the part of the Turks at the Russian military actions in Syria rather than an exasperation at the violation of Turkish airspace. The decision also showed Turkish shortsightedness and political immaturity. It was a blow to Russia, one that may lead to far-reaching international consequences. The long-term consequence for Turkey may be the loss of some of her territory to Kurds.
The course of events and their background
If each single violation of a country’s airspace were to lead to the outbreak of hostilities, we would long have had world war three that would have erupted in the region of the Baltic states where such incidents caused by Russian and NATO pilots are far from being rare. The long accepted practice is that in such cases the pilots of both sides try to make eye contact in order to identify the intruder beyond any doubt. Then the alien craft is escorted out of the country’s airspace.
While paying a visit to Europe in October, Erdoğan addressed an AKP rally in Strasbourg. Thousands of Turks turned up, waving Turkish national flags and listening to Erdoğan’s speech full of nationalistic references to epic wars that Turkey waged against Europe, a speech fraught with religious rhetoric. Europe should be on its guard and take this religion-driven Turkish nationalism very seriously, since history teaches that such statements may not end well.
European politicians had better take notice of the fact that so many AKP supporters showed up in Strasbourg, so much so that the city is not a Turkish rural area nor are the Turks present at the rally simple villagers: to the contrary, the participants of the mass meeting have been living in Europe, the center of the western cosmopolitan world, for decades. Analysts should not downplay the symbolism used by the president of Turkey as meaninglessness. Erdoğan’s reference to the Battle of Gallipoli1, when the Ottomans defeated the Europeans, was chosen with care as a strong and unambiguous message. A direct parallel between the said historic event and the defeat of the European Union by the AKP can easily be drawn, and Erdoğan’s visit to Brussels could be interpreted as an intended humiliation of the European Union, with the subsequent visit of Chancellor Merkel to Ankara as an act of Europe’s capitulation.
In the past week Erdoğan has secured personal support from Brussels as Erdoğan is holding the key to the solution of the refugee crisis in Europe, he is forcing Brussels’ elite to accept his policy. His visit to Brussels cleared the way to grab more power, crack down on press freedom, increase the war against the Kurds and in the process abolish the democracy in Turkey. All of that without losing the support of Brussels’ elite. The bomb attack in Ankara this Saturday, will be the next pretext for Erdoğan to consolidate his power as the ruler of Turkey.
Erdoğan’s visit to Brussels was primarily to discuss the refugee crisis. When Erdoğan left Brussels many were surprised by the fact that both parties agreed to revive Turkish accession process to the European Union, without mentioning the dramatically deteriorating human right situation in Turkey. A clear sign Erdoğan is in the position to blackmail Brussels’ elite as he is holding the key to the current refugee problem. The European leaders are scared to death for the growth of the current refugee crisis in Europe.
Since the US coerces Turkey to participate in the Syrian war in July, the Syrian-Iraqi war has spilled across the boarder into Turkey. Our team tracks daily acts of war in Turkey. According to our first estimate, around one thousand people perished last month in eastern Turkey and Northern Iraq, as a consequence of the armed conflict between the Turkish army and Kurdish insurgents. Given the number of incidents, the daily attacks by Kurdish fighters in Turkey and the arming of Kurdish fighters in Iraq by the US, Germany and other Western countries, we expect the situation to deteriorate even further. We will come with more exact numbers in the coming weeks. It is no coincidence that the refugee crisis moved into Europe at the same time that Turkey became the next victim of a mix of reckless US-Europe foreign policies, ethnic conflicts, religious fanatics and scruples political ambitions.