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And when Turkey falls apart…

The West and especially the United States are bent on lending support to minorities, cost it what it may, even when in the future it turns out that such a policy causes more damage than profit.

Since the time when in November 2016 the Kurds launched an offensive against IS, Washington has been supporting the Syrian YPG (Yekîneyên Parastina Gel or People’s Protection Units). As President Obama has provided them with weapons, President Trump went a step further and has had a 5000-strong military base built in that region of Syria which is controlled by the Kurds.For President Erdoğan it is like a pain in the neck because the YPG can forward the munitions of war to the PKK.Paying a state visit to Washington Erdoğan is trying to dissuade Trump from the whole idea.The American generals have adopted a practical attitude to all this, though: who is there left that they might use as an ally in the war against IS and President Assad, when they have to intervene in Syria? The Turkish troops would have to cross the Kurdish-controlled regions. If the Americans decided to attack from the south, then they would expose themselves to Russian and pro-Assad (i.e. Iranian) forces. It is a fight over access to the Euphrates, Syria’s most important river, on whose banks the IS-occupied city of Rakka is located. This place could soon become the battleground where Syria’s fate might be decided, for once you have conquered Rakka, all of Syria is under your control.

Heavy fighting in Qatif, Eastern Province Saudi Arabia

On social media and YouTube, there are reports of heavy fighting and serious clashes in Al-Qatif, one of Saudi Arabia’s oil-richest regions whose inhabitants are predominantly Shia. The unrest is said to have been sparked off by the Iranian government.

In 2016 Saudi Arabia executed Sheikh Nimr, a top Shia cleric, who was a vocal supporter of the mass anti-government protests that erupted in the Eastern Province in 2011, in retaliation for which Iranian protesters ransacked the Saudi embassy in Tehran.


Shomrim, a symptom of a disintegrating state

Shomrim, a symptom of a disintegrating state
Emblem / shoulder patch of Brooklyn South Shomrim, a volunteer Jewish patrol encompassing Boro Park, Bensonhurst, and Kensington neighborhoods of Brooklyn. Image by municipal government –presumed public domain./

Western societies have been subjected to cultural and ethnic diversification which, as its advocates proclaim, was to enrich the indigenous populations and boost their development. Contrary to the stated goals, members of different ethnic groups tend to stick together, displace the locals, and rather than morph into the culture of the host population they preserve their own,all the more so since their numbers are doubling and trebling and since they regard their recipient societies as weaklings without moral backbone.Under such circumstances separate communities form, large cities turn into mosaics whose particular religious and cultural elements are but loosely connected. Differences in worldviews, beliefs, traditions spark off mutual suspicion, aversion, animosity or an all-out enmity. Social cohesion is only make-believe with all the attendant problems which include (ethnically or racially-driven) crime.

When the sense of security is lost, when “the break-ins and muggings [are] beyond control”,and people cannot rely on the police, and such is the case in many large cities across Western Europe, with their no-go zones,members of a community start setting up their own policing units in self-defence. The London-based Shomrim is a prime example.

Turkey, Serbia and Russia are preparing for the looming war in the Balkans

A break-up of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia’s claims to legal authority over Kosovo will be the next setback for the European establishment. It is not a matter of if but rather when the war in the Balkans will resume. The consequences will be more detrimental to European stability than the Bosnia war in the nineties. A war in Bosnia will increase the tension between the Muslim and the native populations in West Europe, with the latter being more and more vocal in its opposition to the Islamisation of Europe.

The 1999 NATO bombardments of Belgrade forced the Serbian authorities to withdraw their troops from the province of Kosovo. Unlike Bosnia, Kosovo was an integral part of the Serbian Republic.By all international standards, the bombardments of Serbia were an illegal act of war. The European Union and Washington recognised Kosovo in 2008 as an independent state; 45% of the countries in the world did not follow suit, seeing the forced secession as a dangerous precedence incompatible with international law.To tell the truth, there is no such thing as international law; there is only international diplomacy where war is a strategic tool to bend the weaker party to the will of the stronger one.

Europe is surrounded by adversaries

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mapofenergyEuropean gas supply

Currently, less than half of the EU’s gas demand is met by domestic production. The rest is imported, mainly from Norway (36%), Russia (41%) and Algeria (10%). In recent years, LNG, or liquefied natural gas, has accounted for around 10% of the imports, with most of them coming from Qatar, Algeria, and Nigeria.

Europe Inevitable Intervention in Libya Will Add 1.3 Million Barrels to the World Oil Glut

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LibyaEUEurope is planning on recolonizing Libya, and so it will send in armed forces in the coming months to restore order and stem the flow of migrants coming from Africa. If this expedition army succeeds in securing parts of the country and restoring law and order, Italian and German engineers from ENI and Wintershall will follow suit to help resume the country’s oil production, which will add 1.3 million barrels per day (Libya produced 1.7 million barrels per day before Muammar Gaddafi was toppled in 2011) to the world oil glut .

Aramco IPO: PR-freak or an act of desperation?

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photo Laborant
photo Laborant

Analysts and journalists have spent lots of time and have gone to great lengths to raise the awareness of the public of the might of this royal enterprise, which is so large that its value cannot be estimated. So the mechanism has been triggered, Prince Mohammad bin Salman touted the Saudis as reformist and progressive only to later deny the news for all practical purposes. Now it is alleged that the said IPO concerns merely the oil refining part of the business, not the oil drilling, and it was the latter that fuelled the journalists’ figments of imagination.

Saudi Arabia has effectively muffled the question of it respecting the human rights within its borders, feeding the world mass media with the news of the Saudi government considering the sale of the shares in Aramco (IPO), its pearl in the crown, the petroleum giant, which is regarded as ‘probably the world’s most valuable company’. Analysts and journalists have spent lots of time and have gone to great lengths to raise the awareness of the public of the might of this royal enterprise, which is so large that its value cannot be estimated. So the mechanism has been triggered, Prince Mohammad bin Salman touted the Saudis as reformist and progressive only to later deny the news for all practical purposes. Now it is alleged that the said IPO concerns merely the oil refining part of the business, not the oil drilling, and it was the latter that fuelled the journalists’ figments of imagination.

The medial blurb on Armaco going public only served the purpose of reminding the world public opinion of the might of Saudi Arabia, whose authorities do not wish to be associated with beheading, Wahhabism, aerial bombings of Yemen or tacit support for ISIS. The ‘White ISIS’, as the Saudis are commonly referred to by Iranians, is in trouble, and it is not only its image that is tarnished; it is also a financial trouble. And the trouble is real.

The end of the nation-states: new challenge to aviation security

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photo Andrey Khachatryan

National security agencies are failing to protect their airline carriers. Travel agency and airline carriers can not rely on traditional security information and security agencies. As states disintegrates, traditional governmental organization do not provide safeguards for reliable operations anymore.

We mentioned back in July that there is a full blown war in the Sinai. The Egyptian authorities do everything in their power to downplay the facts in order to hold the image of them being in full control. To protect their economical interest they do not share information about the situation. Hundreds of people have been killed in the Sinai last year alone. In September 12 Mexican tourists were accidentally shot by the Egyptian army and in august of this year a passenger airliner was targeted by a missile. The British plane was landing at Sharm el Sheikh airport when a rocket was launched in their direction the pilot barely managed to dodge it. This serious event  did not result in appropriate actions by the UK’s or Egyptian security authorities.

Russian action in Syria will intensify war in Egypt

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Abd al-Fattaha as-Sisiego-1200Egypt, being in a very difficult geopolitical position, may be the next victim of the Syrian war. The Egyptian army has beens truggling with Islamic terrorists on the Sinai Peninsula for a long time, with he Libyan branch of Islamic State causing problems in the western part of the country. Unfortunately for President Abd al-Fattah as-Sisi, with Russian raids in Syria, Islamic militants are now moving to Libya through Sinai.

Egypt did not want to get involved in the war in Syria or in Iraq, directly or indirectly, trying not to spoil the relations with Saudi Arabia. Egypt shared with Bashar al-Assad  the common aim, which is to fight the Islamic insurgency. In fact, the nation is waging a war in the north of Sinai against militant groups loyal to the Islamic State. The worst is yet to come, though.

Syrian-Iraq war spilled across the boarder into Turkey

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photo Volodymyr Borodin

Since the US coerces Turkey to participate in the Syrian war in July, the Syrian-Iraqi war has spilled across the boarder into Turkey. Our team tracks daily acts of war in Turkey. According to our first estimate, around one thousand people perished last month in eastern Turkey and Northern Iraq, as a consequence of the armed conflict between the Turkish army and Kurdish insurgents. Given the number of incidents, the daily attacks by Kurdish fighters in Turkey and the arming of Kurdish fighters in Iraq by the US, Germany and other Western countries, we expect the situation to deteriorate even further.  We will come with more exact numbers in the coming weeks. It is no coincidence that the refugee crisis moved into Europe at the same time that Turkey became the next victim of a mix of reckless US-Europe foreign policies, ethnic conflicts, religious fanatics and scruples political ambitions.