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Turkey, Serbia and Russia are preparing for the looming war in the Balkans

gefira.org

A break-up of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia’s claims to legal authority over Kosovo will be the next setback for the European establishment. It is not a matter of if but rather when the war in the Balkans will resume. The consequences will be more detrimental to European stability than the Bosnia war in the nineties. A war in Bosnia will increase the tension between the Muslim and the native populations in West Europe, with the latter being more and more vocal in its opposition to the Islamisation of Europe.

The 1999 NATO bombardments of Belgrade forced the Serbian authorities to withdraw their troops from the province of Kosovo. Unlike Bosnia, Kosovo was an integral part of the Serbian Republic.1)Bosnia and Herzegovina was a constituent republic that together with Serbia, Macedonia, Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro made up Yugoslavia. Serbia in turn had two autonomous republics, Vojvodina in the north and Kosovo (and Metohija)in the south. Now it is questionable whether an autonomous republic is an integral part of something greater. It is another story that these two autonomous republics were carved out from Serbia by Tito/communists who, like communists everywhere in the world, also these in Brussels, hate nations and always try to split them up. By all international standards, the bombardments of Serbia were an illegal act of war. The European Union and Washington recognised Kosovo in 2008 as an independent state; 45% of the countries in the world did not follow suit, seeing the forced secession as a dangerous precedence incompatible with international law.2)International recognition of Kosovo, Wikipedia.To tell the truth, there is no such thing as international law; there is only international diplomacy where war is a strategic tool to bend the weaker party to the will of the stronger one.3)War is a mere continuation of policy by other means, On War Carl von Clausewitz.

References   [ + ]

1. Bosnia and Herzegovina was a constituent republic that together with Serbia, Macedonia, Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro made up Yugoslavia. Serbia in turn had two autonomous republics, Vojvodina in the north and Kosovo (and Metohija)in the south. Now it is questionable whether an autonomous republic is an integral part of something greater. It is another story that these two autonomous republics were carved out from Serbia by Tito/communists who, like communists everywhere in the world, also these in Brussels, hate nations and always try to split them up.
2. International recognition of Kosovo, Wikipedia.
3. War is a mere continuation of policy by other means, On War Carl von Clausewitz.

Europe is surrounded by adversaries

Gefira.org

mapofenergyEuropean gas supply

Currently, less than half of the EU’s gas demand is met by domestic production. The rest is imported, mainly from Norway (36%), Russia (41%) and Algeria (10%). In recent years, LNG, or liquefied natural gas, has accounted for around 10% of the imports, with most of them coming from Qatar, Algeria, and Nigeria.


Europe Inevitable Intervention in Libya Will Add 1.3 Million Barrels to the World Oil Glut

Gefira.org

LibyaEUEurope is planning on recolonizing Libya, and so it will send in armed forces in the coming months to restore order and stem the flow of migrants coming from Africa. If this expedition army succeeds in securing parts of the country and restoring law and order, Italian and German engineers from ENI and Wintershall will follow suit to help resume the country’s oil production, which will add 1.3 million barrels per day (Libya produced 1.7 million barrels per day before Muammar Gaddafi was toppled in 2011) to the world oil glut 1)Crude oil production in Libya Source EIA.

References   [ + ]

1. Crude oil production in Libya Source EIA

Aramco IPO: PR-freak or an act of desperation?

Gefira.org

 

photo Laborant
photo Laborant

Analysts and journalists have spent lots of time and have gone to great lengths to raise the awareness of the public of the might of this royal enterprise, which is so large that its value cannot be estimated. So the mechanism has been triggered, Prince Mohammad bin Salman touted the Saudis as reformist and progressive only to later deny the news for all practical purposes. Now it is alleged that the said IPO concerns merely the oil refining part of the business, not the oil drilling, and it was the latter that fuelled the journalists’ figments of imagination.

Saudi Arabia has effectively muffled the question of it respecting the human rights within its borders, feeding the world mass media with the news of the Saudi government considering the sale of the shares in Aramco (IPO), its pearl in the crown, the petroleum giant, which is regarded as ‘probably the world’s most valuable company’. Analysts and journalists have spent lots of time and have gone to great lengths to raise the awareness of the public of the might of this royal enterprise, which is so large that its value cannot be estimated. So the mechanism has been triggered, Prince Mohammad bin Salman touted the Saudis as reformist and progressive only to later deny the news for all practical purposes. Now it is alleged that the said IPO concerns merely the oil refining part of the business, not the oil drilling, and it was the latter that fuelled the journalists’ figments of imagination.

The medial blurb on Armaco going public only served the purpose of reminding the world public opinion of the might of Saudi Arabia, whose authorities do not wish to be associated with beheading, Wahhabism, aerial bombings of Yemen or tacit support for ISIS. The ‘White ISIS’, as the Saudis are commonly referred to by Iranians, is in trouble, and it is not only its image that is tarnished; it is also a financial trouble. And the trouble is real.


The end of the nation-states: new challenge to aviation security

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photo Andrey Khachatryan

National security agencies are failing to protect their airline carriers. Travel agency and airline carriers can not rely on traditional security information and security agencies. As states disintegrates, traditional governmental organization do not provide safeguards for reliable operations anymore.

We mentioned back in July that there is a full blown war in the Sinai. The Egyptian authorities do everything in their power to downplay the facts in order to hold the image of them being in full control. To protect their economical interest they do not share information about the situation. Hundreds of people have been killed in the Sinai last year alone. In September 12 Mexican tourists were accidentally shot by the Egyptian army and in august of this year a passenger airliner was targeted by a missile. The British plane was landing at Sharm el Sheikh airport when a rocket was launched in their direction the pilot barely managed to dodge it. This serious event  did not result in appropriate actions by the UK’s or Egyptian security authorities.


Russian action in Syria will intensify war in Egypt

Gefira.org

Abd al-Fattaha as-Sisiego-1200Egypt, being in a very difficult geopolitical position, may be the next victim of the Syrian war. The Egyptian army has beens truggling with Islamic terrorists on the Sinai Peninsula for a long time, with he Libyan branch of Islamic State causing problems in the western part of the country. Unfortunately for President Abd al-Fattah as-Sisi, with Russian raids in Syria, Islamic militants are now moving to Libya through Sinai.

Egypt did not want to get involved in the war in Syria or in Iraq, directly or indirectly, trying not to spoil the relations with Saudi Arabia. Egypt shared with Bashar al-Assad  the common aim, which is to fight the Islamic insurgency. In fact, the nation is waging a war in the north of Sinai against militant groups loyal to the Islamic State. The worst is yet to come, though.


Syrian-Iraq war spilled across the boarder into Turkey

Gefira.org

photo Volodymyr Borodin

Since the US coerces Turkey to participate in the Syrian war in July, the Syrian-Iraqi war has spilled across the boarder into Turkey. Our team tracks daily acts of war in Turkey. According to our first estimate, around one thousand people perished last month in eastern Turkey and Northern Iraq, as a consequence of the armed conflict between the Turkish army and Kurdish insurgents. Given the number of incidents, the daily attacks by Kurdish fighters in Turkey and the arming of Kurdish fighters in Iraq by the US, Germany and other Western countries, we expect the situation to deteriorate even further.  We will come with more exact numbers in the coming weeks. It is no coincidence that the refugee crisis moved into Europe at the same time that Turkey became the next victim of a mix of reckless US-Europe foreign policies, ethnic conflicts, religious fanatics and scruples political ambitions.