Geopolitics – Newropeans Magazine

Lesson from Iran

12:50 8-08-2018 gefira.org

American companies that have invested so much in the fracking technology are interested in raising the price of crude oil. It can only be done if the largest producers agree on the quantities that they put on the world market. Iran since the time when the pro-American shah was deposed has not been on friendly terms with the United States and so it will not go hand in hand with American plans. That is the reason why it must be put out of the equation, and that is also why Washington is looking for pretexts to go to war with Tehran.

Rumour about the impending war against Iran has persisted for some time now. After Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria Tehran appears to be the next target. Washington is taking firm steps against Iran. As for now these are economic only. Rumour about a possible coalition uniting, apart from the United States, also Saudi Arabia, Israel and Australia is already spreading. What does Iran stand accused of? Of attempting to produce its own nuclear weapons and supporting – yes, you guessed it right – terrorism. The usual stuff.

The new ‘OPEC DEAL’ approved in Helsinki: the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia

10:36 2-08-2018 gefira.org

Crude oil is a product that has always given rise to intense speculation in which respect it is second only to cryptocurrencies. This commodity yielded lower and lower revenues, which was caused by its abundant supply which occurred after the international sanctions imposed on Iran had been lifted: in one and a half years the price of the barrel dropped from 110 USD in June 2014 to 30 USD in January 2016.

It is not only too low but also too high value of oil that is problematic for governments, and this is because citizens may show their dissatisfaction with expensive fuel at the ballot box (in the United States senate by-elections are scheduled for November), since more expensive oil means more expensive transport, which sooner or later entails a rise in prices of virtually all other goods.

Russia’s demography

14:36 9-02-2018 gefira.org

The Russian Federation is the world’s largest country in terms of area, the largest producer and exporter of natural gas, crude oil, and many food products, which is why this state exerts a significant influence on others. If anything goes wrong there some countries will be rubbing their hands in delight that one of their competitors is getting weaker, while others will be in a difficult, situation, losing their main supplier or buyer.

Moscow is concerned about the demographic decline which negatively affects the country’s geopolitical, economic and military potential. Though the Russian population is not threatened with extinction in the foreseeable future, the media often describe the country’s demographic situation as difficult or critical. The labour force is said to be declining by 800 thousand workers every year. Immigration could be a solution but for a disproportionately high number of umie educated people among foreigners. A brain drain is yet another problem that the government needs to deal with.Certainly, pension expenditure will have to be increased because of the growing number of seniors or pensions will have to be reduced. There could arise a need to levy a higher income tax and extend the retirement age. As for now the authorities are focused on encouraging families to have children.

Different standards of NATO: Article 5 never applies to Turkey

11:56 2-02-2018 gefira.org

The former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen succinctly paraphrased this point of the Treaty as „all for one, one for all”,of which it does not follow, however, that Article 5 imposes on Member States the commencement of armed operations but only obliges them to take such steps as a member state deems necessary. However, two similar circumstances and two similar resultant operations have brought about two strikingly different political evaluations.

The attacks of September 11, 2001 were defined by Washington as a violation of the security and integrity of the country, which became the basis for invoking Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.Nine days later George Bush said: „We will pursue nations that provide aid or safe haven to terrorism. Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists. From this day forward, any nation that continues to harbor or support terrorism will be regarded by the United States as a hostile regime”.

The US endgame is about demographics

5:18 21-09-2017 gefira.org

The decline of the social, economic and political situation in the United States will accelerate under Donald Trump’s term. The mainstream media are portraying his administration as a disaster and accusing him of destroying America’s standing in the world by moves such as withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement. The truth is that Trump’s presidency and the attendant political turmoil are the symptoms of a decaying nation rather than the cause, it merely proves that the American people have had enough of the Washington government and it shows their deep distrust of the American mainstream media. Donald Trump too, is a part of the establishment, so it came as no surprise that Steve Bannon and his “populist” platform (that won him the presidency) was removed from the White House and the President embraced the military complex (that nobody voted for) represented by the likes of John Kelly, H.R. McMaster and John Mattis. His base starts to crack as they burn the “Let’s Make America Great Again“ cap as a symbol of protest on Twitter and high profile supporters such as Ann Coulter turn against his policy. With the removal of Steve Bannon the US will continue its usual policy, which means that its public debt will increase indefinitely. The fight between the media and the White House is a distraction from the real problems: Trump’s budget can only work if tax revenue is twice as much as it is now, a doubling of social security spending while military spending increases, to wit 50%. The US will try to continue its so called “preponderance” military strategy as we will explain. Even if the Trump administration is able to build a wall between Mexico and the US, mass-migration has to continue to create 5% economic growth.

Gefira #16 is available for only 25 Euros Gefira research expect that the downfall of the West will start in 2020. The financial and political planners should only worry about the demographics. In 2015 the European populations began to shrink, and for that, the economy will never fully recover, the financial markets will crumble, and the maintenance of large armies are impossible. Gerfira #16: The US Endgame.

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A global military confrontation?

7:43 18-09-2017 gefira.org

The situation in the world raises the question of whether and when there may be armed confrontation between China and Russia on the one hand and the United States on the other.
Americans have begun to implement the offshore balancing concept which means that local powers, located far away from the US, have to take care of their own security. China’s economic and military activity is very extensive. Through the Belt and Road concept Beijing is striving for domination in Eurasia and the whole world. The conflict in Ukraine is going on, US-Russian relations are strained.

Russia feels encircled by the NATO and so is strengthening its ties with China. We can also talk about a trade war between USA and Russia. Germany and France are in opposition to Trump’s administration and the role of the United States in Europe and in the world. The effectiveness of NATO is questionable. NATO member Turkey has just bought the Russian S-400 air-deference system while Germany has put all major arms exports to NATO ally Turkey on hold. Americans do not want to lose their present dominant position. The political atmosphere in Europe and in the world is highly charged. One more impulse, one more conflict and another global war may break out. Therefore, it is well-founded to analyze forces of the global players: China, Russia and USA.

Ethnic tensions and Trump’s militarist flirt: the decline of the West accelerates.

12:02 8-09-2017 gefira.org

How many times in history has a regime facing internal difficulties sought military adventures to “unite people behind the flag”? This time, it’s America’s turn.
The first 6 months of the Trump presidency have been characterised by an increase in ethnic tensions as US demographic shifts towards “white minority” with a significant ”Hispanic” population. The demographic change has been hailed by the Democratic Party and corporate America which promptly adopted ”identity politics” as a core ideology, exalting the individual if he (or she) belongs to an ethnic, religious or sexual minority: in practice, however, this translates into depicting “Blacks” and “Hispanics” as “oppressed”, “whites” as “oppressors” and “Asians” as “too good”, which is why discrimination against them in academic admissions is justified. Inevitably the vilification of the whites paved the way for “pride” demonstrations and the return of “white nationalism” as evidenced by the recent Charlottesville clashes.

Beware the Chinese!

6:58 7-09-2017 gefira.org

The world is on the dawn of the outbreak of a major conflict: trade war is being waged between the USA and China and between the USA and Russia, while European countries are lacking any leadership and drifting ungovernable because they have surrendered their currency and with it their sovereignty to bureaucrats. Beijing is not satisfied with the fact that the dollar is an international currency. Along with the rise of its economic power China would like to play an increasing role in financial affairs. Russia, encircled by NATO, is currently implementing a large-scale rearmament program. In 2010 Moscow announced it would have modernized 70 percent of its military hardware by 2020. In 2016 civil defense exercises were conducted, in which allegedly 40 mln people took part. In Moscow anti-nuclear shelters are being built.

The next step in the trade war against the United States

7:53 30-08-2017 gefira.org

After the European Union has failed to implement TIPP and the European Parliament has barely accepted the controversial CEFTA against a backdrop of numerous protests, Brussels is letting in another Trojan Horse through the back door and is doing it secretly.

Since the TTIP has failed, the EU just had to think up a new monstrosity: JEFTA, an agreement on free trade with Japan that is about to be finalized and that hardly anybody has heard about despite the four-year negotiations. On July 6 the EU Commission and Japan decided to complete the JEFTA agreement. It is outrageous that the EU citizens have scarcely been informed about it. The same was true of TTIP and CEFTA: people only learnt about it when huge protests were staged. So also now the most important documents concerning JEFTA have only been made known to us through a leak affair.

As for now the trade between Japan and the EU is burdened with customs duties that amount to one billion euros annually. Thanks to the prospective abolition of customs duties the Toyotas and Hondas should become cheaper in Europe whereas the Japanese might be able to eventually afford French cheese and champagne. Sounds good, or does it? We describe below in short how dangerous the agreement is:

Donald Trump: another neocon or finally a realist?

7:42 5-08-2017 gefira.org

For many the new President of the US is a controversial figure. His firm declarations related to focusing on American interest are a source of fear among superpower’s allies. At the same time his tenure isn’t free from actions based on ideas. The world is wondering: is Donald Trump a continuator of George W. Bush’s neoconservative diplomacy or rather an author of its own doctrine founded on the realist school of international relations. For all of us it would be better, if the second option were the actual one.

Both perspectives are considerably different. Though both stress the importance of national interest, the neocons are driven by a number of ideas. The opponents blame them for believing that the US should remain “a world sheriff”, who keeps a close eye on international order and reacts when anyone violates international norms. The neocons consider it necessary for America to show its power constantly so that others respect its dominance. They also are interested in intervening in faraway lands, even if its not in the administration’s vital interests. That’s the thing that makes them similar to the so-called liberal hawks.

In search of a new balance of power in Asia

8:17 31-07-2017 gefira.org

The United States is signaling that it is going to limit its military presence in countries far away. Maybe Donald Trump listened to those realists who have suggested for a long time that America can uphold its superpower status only if it focuses on offshore balancing strategy. No matter what the intentions really are, the US government’s declarations result in redefining foreign policies of Asian states. The limitation of American presence changes the regional distribution of power, and forces other actors to assess their alliances and to search for new partners who might be an asset in case of conflict.

Changes in the balance of power in Asia
Until the US leaves Asia, the balance is preserved. The limitation of involvement suggested by Washington results in a search for new allies by all states in the region in order to level the capabilities. America’s withdrawal gives new opportunities to China, which can extend its sphere of influence and endanger Russia and India. However, the military threat won’t appear instantly. We’ll probably witness an increase in economic penetration. The economic imperialism resulting in power maximization may be the indicator of growing revisionism understood as a policy aimed at bringing down the actual status quo in Asia and establishing a new order.

Soros-sponsored immigration network in Italy

4:44 14-07-2017 gefira.org

The following article is based on Francesca Totolo’s research published on lucadonadel.it.

Open Borders, Media Censorship
Why is there a migrant crisis in the Mediterranean? Why are NGOs involved? Because there is an extensive network of open borders activists and organizations behind it; many of them are directly funded by or cooperated with George Soros’ Open Society. Is it illegal? Not really. Political activism is an essential part of democratic societies. However, sometimes it goes too far, or the promoted causes prove to be either unrealistic or unsustainable.
The network of the “immigration lobby’’ in Italy is made up of International NGOs financed by the Open Society Foundation (green), Italian NGOs financed by OSF (blue), and organizations with shared projects with OSF (purple).