The revolution of the middle class
The 2008 financial disaster marked the beginning of a deep identity crisis in the West. After the collapse of American Lehman Brothers, governments around the globe began to support their financial institutions with unlimited amounts of tax money. Small and middle size companies would bankrupt and people in the United States continued to be evicted from their houses while the financial elite would receive a handsome amount of public support. In other words: socialism for Wall Street, capitalism for Main Street. It became painfully clear that the free market and capitalism did not work for the banks and financial institutions.
Then followed the euro crisis, with Greece’s debt at its centre. Particular European economies are suffering from the imbalance between income and a rising public debt. In 2015 it was apparent that the European leadership had no solution for Greece let alone for similar problems that will soon inevitably emerge in Spain, France and Italy.
- The portents are not good
- Possessed by an ideology: The re-emergence of Marxism
- The Green Party, Communists and Governing Corporations
During the 2008-2015 time frame there was a widespread opposition among the common against the financial establishment, European governments and the monetary system. The resentment was stoked by the perception that the whole system was unfair against the normal working man. In 2015 radical left-wing politician Alexis Tsipras took office in Greece and socialists like Yanis Varoufakis, Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders became the protectors of the middle and working classes. The political climate seems perfect for the socialists and yet socialist parties are declining.
It is not merely inequality that matters. Most Western countries are implementing a redistribution of wealth from the middle to the lower classes. For example, in the Netherlands a family with one working adult and a yearly income of 20 thousand gets 7 thousand euros in subsidies, thus pocketing 27 thousand, whereas a person having a 31 thousand income must pay 3 thousand euros in tax, and since he receives no subsidies, he lands up with 28 thousand euros. For all practical purposes 10 thousand difference in income comes to naught.
In 2015 Europe was confronted with an invasion of immigrants of biblical proportions. Sweden had been replacing its own shrinking population with people from the Third World for a long time earlier, but it was in that year that suddenly the common people began to realize that this demographic process, slow though it may be, has become unstoppable.
Since the 2015 so-called refugee crisis, citizens in many European countries have begun to understand that migration from the Third World has not a marginal effect but will transform large parts of the continent. The countryside of France, Spain and Italy is depopulating while the big cities are rapidly being colonized by non-Europeans. The leftwing parties do not dare to discuss migration and the consequences that it entails. They accuse anti-immigration parties as Lega Nord (Italy), AfD (Germany) and FN (France) of scaremongering and populism. While socialists across Europe assure their voters that nothing special is happening, the reality is that more than 50% of the youth in cities such as Amsterdam and Paris are now of non-European decent. Unsurprisingly then, it is the anti-migrant right-wing patriotic parties that are gaining votes in the elections. The latest surprise happened in Andalusia, Spain, where the Socialists lost their traditional power base. According to El Pais:
“Far-right political party Vox on Wednesday pledged to help a right-wing coalition secure
power in Andalusia, signaling the end of 36 years of Socialist Party (PSOE) administrations
in the southern region.”
The European working populace, once the backbone of labour unions and socialist parties, feeling disgruntled and betrayed by both the banks and the socialists, are rising up in rebellion of which the yellow vests movement is the harbinger.
The corporate and financial elites plus the left-leaning academics and politicians all support immigration from Africa and Asia to replenish the shrinking native populations and they are all in favour of an energy transition, cost it what it may. Since 2015 the leftist movements and the business and financial corporations have formed a strong alliance for “a better inclusive” world. Oil companies are flying the rainbow flag, black Africans are cast in TV adverts as Dutch, German or Swedish consumers whereas energy companies show that the future of Europe is partly Islamic. CO2 reduction and green policies are said not only to be saving the world but also constitute business opportunities.
The Gefira financial bulletin is a monthly periodical that the Gefira team releases ten times a year. We give a clear projection of the future of energy and politics.From Trump’s election to the steep increase in the oil price and the value of bitcoin, it was all in the Gefira before it happened.
According to the Gefira team, the next systemic crisis will happen around 2020 as the oil price is back at 100 dollar and German mass retirement begin. There is a high risk of war on the Old Continent. However, it is not Russia but Turkey that is the most imminent threat.
It is not the emerging markets, nor public or private debt that should be of interest to investors but instead the shrinking populations in the developed world. Japan is the first country that experiences a diminishing number of people, and for that reason, it pursuing extraordinary monetary and fiscal policies.The decrease in the European and US populations will have dire economic consequences, and after 2025 China will join the club of dying nations.
Apart from China and Russia, economic growth in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia is dependent on the developed countries which see a dramatic shrinkage of their populations.
On our Website, we have articles from our research team whereas in the Gefira Financial Bulletin we give a comprehensive explanation of the coming world. We focus primarily on economic, investment and strategic subjects. We focus on 2020 as the financial breaking point.
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From the perspective of investors and financial planners we focus on such issues as:
- geopolitical risks
- private and public debt
- assets bubbles
- energy security
The Gefira Financial Bulletin is a confidential briefing paper on the current economic events for investors and generally the business community. It is accompanied by our website, where you will find articles on social issues. The Gefira research team is the only one that is acutely aware of the importance of the current unprecedented demographic changes not seen before in all of history.
The Gefira research team elaborates its anticipation, drawing on:
- an extensive knowledge of finance and banking;
- a comprehensive understanding of geopolitics and history;
- detailed data analyses of millions of records;
- computer-aided simulations.
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