The end of the EU and the Balkans as China’s foothold in Europe
Though the end of the European Union is inevitable, the proponents of a further integrated or federal superstate are busy making a last effort to achieve their goal. The opposition against the project is mounting with every day. Europe is suffering from economic stagnation, and is facing a demographic calamity.
The pro-European establishment’s last hope was the newly-elected French President Emanuel Macron who was to revive the economy and integrate the European Union under French leadership. Gefira was of the opinion that all these expectations were misplaced. The once great nation is broken beyond repair. France’s problems are much worse than those of Italy. Though Italy has a higher debt-to-GDP ratio than France, France has a larger budget deficit, and the difference is that while Italy has a trade surplus France has a trade deficit, so the country cannot pay for its imports.
- European Project Comes to an End.
- The Balkans
- Intelligent or automated security is the future
While the Italian “populist” Mateo Salvini is earning the nation’s respect, Emmanuel Macron’s popularity is at a historic low. All of France is engulfed by riots, civil unrest and looting. In city after city, village after village, protesters have been clashing with the police for weeks now while President Macron has nothing to offer to appease them, unless he violates the budget deficit boundary of 3%.
Like the Soviet Union once was, France is a sizeable social-multicultural experiment, and like the empty shops in communist countries, the demographic changes in France are visible in every section of the society, but nobody dares to name them. Once the whole world saw that the French team playing at the FIFA World Cup was made up of almost exclusively Africans, and even on Twitter Africans boasted about it. Yet, the French establishment insisted that those Africans were genuinely French. Dissenters were branded as racists or Nazis.
Academia as well as the political and business establishment deny what is clear to see for all. The French society has lost its economic strength and its spirit. The country was once known for its first high-speed-trains (TGV) and Concorde, but now it is notorious for social dystopia and Islamist attacks.
To prove that they are right, the French and European elites will push the multicultural society even further by signing the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration. Also the report entitled: “Replacement Migration: Is it a solution for an ageing population” is the United Nations’ comprehensive plan for replacing the European population.
The Fifth Republic has come to an end, and we do not expect President Macron will finish his term. France’s socio-economic collapse will drag the European Union into the abyss.
Now that the heart of Europe is ungovernable, its peripheries will not fare any better. The multicultural and multireligious Bosnia is not sustainable. The borders in the region will be redrawn again, which will come with a price. A war between Muslims and Christians in the Balkans will reverberate in the suburbs of Paris, Amsterdam and Berlin because of the Muslim large minorities there. The European establishment has allowed Islam to grow in Europe, and, strange enough, they believed that European Muslims would feel grateful for such generosity.
From the point of view of non-European powers the Balkans are a bridgehead worth fighting for. In the nineteenth century it was the Europeans who were expanding into China, now it is the Chinese who are trying to gain a foothold in Europe. Chinese investments and influence are growing in the Balkans. For centuries this part of Europe has been the battlefield between (Orthodox and Catholic) Christianity on the other hand and Islam on the other. Now a new global player has emerged in the region: China. For many Europeans, this part of Europe seems of little importance, but we think that ignoring the Balkans is going to be a fatal error. The conflicts there are far from being solved and the West through its ignorance of the intricacies of the Balkans’ history is stoking the fire by the solutions it implements there.
The Gefira financial bulletin is a monthly periodical that the Gefira team releases ten times a year. We give a clear projection of the future of energy and politics.From Trump’s election to the steep increase in the oil price and the value of bitcoin, it was all in the Gefira before it happened.
According to the Gefira team, the next systemic crisis will happen around 2020 as the oil price is back at 100 dollar and German mass retirement begin. There is a high risk of war on the Old Continent. However, it is not Russia but Turkey that is the most imminent threat.
It is not the emerging markets, nor public or private debt that should be of interest to investors but instead the shrinking populations in the developed world. Japan is the first country that experiences a diminishing number of people, and for that reason, it pursuing extraordinary monetary and fiscal policies.The decrease in the European and US populations will have dire economic consequences, and after 2025 China will join the club of dying nations.
Apart from China and Russia, economic growth in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia is dependent on the developed countries which see a dramatic shrinkage of their populations.
On our Website, we have articles from our research team whereas in the Gefira Financial Bulletin we give a comprehensive explanation of the coming world. We focus primarily on economic, investment and strategic subjects. We focus on 2020 as the financial breaking point.
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From the perspective of investors and financial planners we focus on such issues as:
- geopolitical risks
- private and public debt
- assets bubbles
- energy security
The Gefira Financial Bulletin is a confidential briefing paper on the current economic events for investors and generally the business community. It is accompanied by our website, where you will find articles on social issues. The Gefira research team is the only one that is acutely aware of the importance of the current unprecedented demographic changes not seen before in all of history.
The Gefira research team elaborates its anticipation, drawing on:
- an extensive knowledge of finance and banking;
- a comprehensive understanding of geopolitics and history;
- detailed data analyses of millions of records;
- computer-aided simulations.
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