In the past week Erdoğan has secured personal support from Brussels as Erdoğan is holding the key to the solution of the refugee crisis in Europe, he is forcing Brussels’ elite to accept his policy. His visit to Brussels cleared the way to grab more power, crack down on press freedom, increase the war against the Kurds and in the process abolish the democracy in Turkey. All of that without losing the support of Brussels’ elite. The bomb attack in Ankara this Saturday, will be the next pretext for Erdoğan to consolidate his power as the ruler of Turkey.
Erdoğan’s visit to Brussels was primarily to discuss the refugee crisis. When Erdoğan left Brussels many were surprised by the fact that both parties agreed to revive Turkish accession process to the European Union, without mentioning the dramatically deteriorating human right situation in Turkey. A clear sign Erdoğan is in the position to blackmail Brussels’ elite as he is holding the key to the current refugee problem. The European leaders are scared to death for the growth of the current refugee crisis in Europe.
European media and politicians are completely missing the fact that the refugees are used by North-African leaders to pressure their European counterparts. Sending waves of refugees into Europe is a smart strategy, using human suffering as a political tool. The current political atmosphere in Europe does not allow to mention this, even accusing Ankara of using this strategy is not without political consequence. It is considered by many as extremely political incorrect.
With the last visit to Brussels, Erdoğan assured that Europe will accept any political move by him and Ankara as long as Turkey stops the refugee inflow into Europe. They have even reward him with the reviving of the EU accession negotiations. Not that this will ever happen, Europe nor Turkey is currently interested in Turkey being the twenty-ninth member of the European Union.
Erdoğan is assured of the support from the frightened Brussels elite, for his upcoming political move. The bomb attack, this Saturday, on his political opponents are resembling the same tactic used in the Suluc attack, July 21. The international press completely ignored the fact that many Turkish Members of Parliament, former Prosecutors and ordinary Turks see the AKP as complicit to the Suluc attack. The bomb attack on the Kurds in Suluc was definitely not aimed at the Turkish state, but was framed by Erdoğan as a signal that Turkey has to be tough on terrorists. The perpetrators of the Suluc suicide attack, ISIS, saw their action being rewarded. As a consequence of this attack Turkey start to attack ISIS’s most feared adversary in the region, the Kurds.
Saturday 10 October bomb attack in Ankara will result in the same pattern. Erdoğan’s opponents know how the game is being played, however criticizing Erdoğan will result in imprisonment or could result in physical harassment. The Ankara attack could lead to emotional and violence reactions against the Turkish security and political establishment. This gives Erdoğan the opportunity to announce the state of emergency and push for juridical implementation to extend the power of the president; Mr Erdoğan. As we have already mentioned in July, we will not be surprised if the elections will be postponed. One can not help to think that Mr. Erdoğan masterminded the attacks by himself.
The events in order as they have happened since the Turkish elections:
- June, the AKP failed to secure a majority in parliament. Erdoğan has to shelve his plan to enlarge the executive power of the president. The emergence of HDP was applaud by Brussels and the international press. Gefira immediately warned for political upheaval and estimated that there would be a reelection
- Jule, Turkey and US agreed to attack terrorists from incirlik air base. Gefira directly predicted that Turkey will never accept the reemergence of a Kurdish autonomous region in Syria and that the unfolding situation will result in more violence within Turkey and could lead the state of emergency and the postponing of the elections.
- Jule 21 The suicide attack in Suluc killed 32 Kurds and was the beginning of the war with the PKK, leaving hundreds of people dead. The AKP opponents accused the AKP and Turkish security service MIT complicit in the Suluc attack
- August – September, Turkish press was attacked by mobs, the Turkish government raided news papers for insulting Erdoğan. Many foreign journalist were detained and extradited.
- September, the on estimate 3 million refugees that are displaced in Turkey for more than 3 years started their march on Europe.
- October, Erdoğan visits Brussels. Europe express sympathy for Turkey and promise to pay for refugees in Turkey. Brussels and Turkey plead to revive the Turkish access process
- Bomb attack in Ankara killed almost 100 peace activists, Erdoğan opponents.
We expect that Erdoğan to crack down on his opponents with more violence and suppressing the basic human-rights. Europe and especially Brussels’ elite will be abstain from any criticism as they are afraid that Erdoğan will once again open the refugee gate and flood Europe with a fresh wave of asylum seekers. Turkey itself will fall further into chaos, the Syrian civil war is slowly moving into Turkey. Turkey; a country that has been functioning for three years as a transit point for many insurgence groups. Those whom are armed and trained by the Germans, Dutch, Britons Saudi’s, Americans and even the Turks themselves. With or without Brussels’ submission to Erdoğan, Turkey is turning into the next tinderbox in the region, the European refugee crisis has only just begun.