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France’s highways descend in chaos and lawlessness Read more >>> Parliamentary Debate over Poland proved a blow to the European Commission Read more >>> A politically-motivated decision of a S&P German analyst aimed at Polish authorities Read more >>> Aramco IPO: PR-freak or an act of desperation? Read more >>> Juncker: ‘Dutch “NO” will result in big continental crisis’ Read more >>>

France’s highways descend in chaos and lawlessness

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calaisWhile the media attention is directed to the refugee crisis in Germany, France’s highways in Normandy are descending into complete chaos and lawlessness.
France’s rule of law has ceased to exists in the area around Calais. In Europe highways used to be inaccessible to pedestrian traffic. Nowadays in France immigrants are wandering on the highways, and trucks are being stormed, which has become the “new normal”. As the events are unfolding in France, European mainstream media are ignoring them. Calais has had a migrant problem for more than 10 years, but since last year the situation has been deteriorating rapidly. The governments in Paris, London and Brussels have completely lost control, they are not able to maintain the rule of law and they are miserably failing to protect their citizens.
European and especially English politicians have tried to solve the problem by punishing the victims. European truckers, already at the bottom of the earning pyramid, can be fined up to half of their annual salary when refugees manage to get aboard their trucks.


Parliamentary Debate over Poland proved a blow to the European Commission

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The EU parliamentary debate over the alleged violation of the rule of law in Poland was redundant or, as some maintain, illegal. It fuelled the anti-European sentiment of the EU opponents who made use of the event to take exception to the functioning of the EU and criticized it for interfering into internal affairs of the member states. The debate will have enhanced the popularity of the government in Poland, should the resolution be not passed in February.


A politically-motivated decision of a S&P German analyst aimed at Polish authorities

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shutterstock_307103525The Standard and Poor’s rating agency, notorious for its controversial assessments, has this time bashed Poland in the wake of the anti-Polish frenzy whipped up by the European media. To be more precise, Poland was assailed by a German S&P analyst who lowered Poland’s rating from A- to BBB+, despite the economic data that by no means warrant such an evaluation. The agency concedes that the change of the assessment of Poland’s solvency has been brought about by the alleged  unfavourable political climate in the country. It is unfavourable especially for the financial and banking sector; the latest law levies a new tax on the banks. The lowering of the rating is aimed at curbing the activities of the Polish government which will now be compelled to take out loans under worse financial conditions as before and as a result have difficulties keeping its election promises.

On Friday afternoon (Jan. 15) President Andrzej Duda signed into law an act on bank tax within the meaning of which from February 2016 it will be mandatory for banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions to provide the country’s budget with 0,44% of the value of their assets. A few hours earlier on the same day, the President laid down a draft law that comes to the aid of the citizens who had taken out loans in the Swiss franc and who have found themselves in financial trouble after the exchange rate of the Swiss currency was floated. The Polish right-wing media tout the lowering of Poland’s rating as a retaliatory move against the Polish authorities on the part of the financial sector.


Aramco IPO: PR-freak or an act of desperation?

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photo Laborant
photo Laborant

Analysts and journalists have spent lots of time and have gone to great lengths to raise the awareness of the public of the might of this royal enterprise, which is so large that its value cannot be estimated. So the mechanism has been triggered, Prince Mohammad bin Salman touted the Saudis as reformist and progressive only to later deny the news for all practical purposes. Now it is alleged that the said IPO concerns merely the oil refining part of the business, not the oil drilling, and it was the latter that fuelled the journalists’ figments of imagination.

Saudi Arabia has effectively muffled the question of it respecting the human rights within its borders, feeding the world mass media with the news of the Saudi government considering the sale of the shares in Aramco (IPO), its pearl in the crown, the petroleum giant, which is regarded as ‘probably the world’s most valuable company’. Analysts and journalists have spent lots of time and have gone to great lengths to raise the awareness of the public of the might of this royal enterprise, which is so large that its value cannot be estimated. So the mechanism has been triggered, Prince Mohammad bin Salman touted the Saudis as reformist and progressive only to later deny the news for all practical purposes. Now it is alleged that the said IPO concerns merely the oil refining part of the business, not the oil drilling, and it was the latter that fuelled the journalists’ figments of imagination.

The medial blurb on Armaco going public only served the purpose of reminding the world public opinion of the might of Saudi Arabia, whose authorities do not wish to be associated with beheading, Wahhabism, aerial bombings of Yemen or tacit support for ISIS. The ‘White ISIS’, as the Saudis are commonly referred to by Iranians, is in trouble, and it is not only its image that is tarnished; it is also a financial trouble. And the trouble is real.


Juncker: ‘Dutch “NO” will result in big continental crisis’

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JunckerTuskPoroshenkoIn April the Dutch people will vote on the European-Ukraine association treaty.  In an interview with the NRC, a Dutch leading newspaper, Juncker warned the Dutch voters a “NO” will lead to a big continental crisis. “Russia and anti European movements will profit from a Dutch No, the Dutch has to vote yes for reasons not related to the treaty, the Dutch should act like an European strategist” according to Mr Juncker.
Even the Dutch leader of the most pro European party, Mr  Pechtold, was shocked by the warning, fearing it will have an avert affect on the Dutch voters.


The Syrification of South East Turkey is now a fact

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The Syrian war has been spilled over into Turkey. The Kurdish fighters are now the preferred weapon recipients of the West. The US, Germany, The Netherlands and UK are supplying Kurdish fighter with arms and training.

Turkish Tank Gets Hit While Shelling Cizre

Not only the Pesmerga in Northern Iraq, governed by president Barzani, a key US ally in the region, but also the Syrian Kurdish factions, who are ran by the Socialist Democratic Union Party (PYD), are armed by the US. The Syrian Kurdish militias solely promised not to hand over the US supplied weapons to their PKK brothers in Turkey. There is no way to control this and the Turkish state media “Daily Sabah” already complains that Germany are delivering arms and training PKK insurgents.
Erdogan is now transforming Turkey into an Islafascistic state: a mixture of extreme nationalism combined with Islamism, a strong leader, backed by a strong army.


Kanal Istanbul: Within 7 Years US Aircraft Carriers Will Enter the Black Sea

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The tension between the USA and Russia has grown enormously over the couple of months. The case of yet another Russian jet shot down by Turkey pushed Ankara into the American embrace. Iran and Syria has stood by Moscow, the guarantor of their independence of the Western powers. Turkey, faced with no real choice, decided to throw in her lot with the USA. Wasn’t it the Allies that won in World War One? Was Turkey not defeated then because she backed the wrong horse? So Erdogan, Turkey’s president for life, has taken his decision: let the Americans make use of Kanal İstanbul and move their fleet into the Black Sea. The Montreux Convention forbidding passage of navies through the Bosporus does not apply. It is not the Bosporus, it is Kanal İstanbul. The year is 2023, the canal has just been completed.

That might be a scenario playing out in the nearest future. If. If the idea for cutting a waterway through the mainland will have materialized within several years from now.


Teasing Russia: with Montenegro as new NATO member Serbia will be entirely encircled

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photo  Rokas Tenys
photo Rokas Tenys

NATO is about to expand taking on a new member: Montenegro. Podgorica’s bid to start accession talks and become the 29th member of the alliance was accepted on 2 December1. Strategically the country is no gain, politically it is. Russia is being sent a signal that yet another state that used to be under her influence is being taken away. The alliance is taking the Balkans piece by piece. Serbia, too, is being considered as a prospective NATO member.

The move that has been spearheaded by PM Aleksandar Vučić is strongly resisted by the Montenegrin population and by Russia. Montenegrins staged protests long ago, even during the visit paid to Podgorica by Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg2. People do remember NATO aerial bombings of former Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) that took place during the 78 days of the war of 1999, which left many casualties and areas radioactively polluted due to the NATO’s use of missiles with depleted uranium. The opposition Democratic People’s Party advocates a referendum as the only way of deciding whether the country should join the alliance, but the authorities refuse3. Is it because they are afraid of losing?


Disunited Europe uses Schengen as a tool to exert pressure

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The European Union has never been a unity but recent conflicts even sharpened the divisions. We have not only the broad EU-28 but the euro-zone within it and the Schengen-area as a next dimension. Moreover, the continent falls into the rich and stable North and poor and indebted South on the one hand, as well as the multiethnic and open West and the monoethnic and closed East on the other. Since no state wants to be excluded from the elite, European politicians started to blackmail each other using the threat of exclusion rather than cooperate. If the EU fails and loses to nationalist governments that may come to power due to the unwise decisions taken by the Community, then the current leaders will be to blame.eurozone

It started a few years ago with the Greek debt crisis and the possible expulsion of the country from the euro area. It was a forcible way of making Greece carry out reforms in the manner intended by the Troika, even if the Greeks had their own views. And blackmailing still continues, as only if the next deadline of a bail-out comes.


Donald Trump: America’s next president from Wall Street

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photo a katz
photo a katz

Last summer we made a forecast that Mr Trump might be America’s next president. Back then, most of the political analysts could not take this as a serious eventuality. They wrongly viewed Mr Trump as an outsider, despised by the USA establishment. And as an outsider they think he has no chance of becoming the next US president. Some 4 months later as CNN headlines read: “CNN/ORC Poll: Trump alone at the top again”1, many political analysts are still in disbelief.

Democracy works according to a simple pattern. To make it as a president, a candidate needs access to the mainstream media. In many countries the mainstream media are partly state owned;, in the US they are owned by New York based firms like Twenty-First Century Fox (Fox News), Inc, Time Warner inc (CNN) and National Amusements, Inc. (CBS) financed by Wall Street Bankers and Wall Street investor funds. In modern society people do not receive media coverage by accident. It is carefully planned who is and who is not in the media.


Could Artur Mas tear Spain apart and trigger a “black swan” event?

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Artur Mas 2-1280
Artur Mas, The President of the Catalan Government (photo Matthi)

On September 27 the coalition Junts pel Si (Together for Yes) led by Artur Mas won the local election in Catalonia. Its political platform promised to work towards Catalonia’s independence of Spain. On November 9 the Catalan parliament passed a separatist motion: the legislators were tasked with

(i) drafting the Catalan constitution,

(ii) designing the Catalan social security system and

(iii) creating the Catalan treasury1.

Within the meaning of the same motion the Spanish Constitutional Court no longer had jurisdiction over Catalonia. In the wake of these events the Spanish government headed by Mariano Rajoy appealed with the Constitutional Court to suspend the Catalan motion and to issue a warning to 29 top Catalan politicians.


Right-wing Parties are on the rise across Europe

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Right-wing parties have always been part of the European political scene with the French National Front and the British National Party as well as United Kingdom Independent Party being most talked about. At the polls they may have had quite a large popular support, yet the election systems used in some European countries effectively blocked them from entering national parliaments although they gained a significant share of the vote (see graph for UKIP)1. In some isolated cases when a nationalistically-oriented or a right-wing party won a significant number of parliament seats, it would be shunned by all the remaining parties, and thus rendered politically ineffective, as was the case with the Sweden Democrats2.

nordicvotes-1024x713

Enter the refugees. The swelling numbers of migrants and especially the flood that has taken place over a couple of recent years has made Europeans reconsider their attitude to the phenomenon, and so they started supporting the parties, whose political platform called for stopping the migrant waves.