The Migration Crisis has divided EU members. The inflow of newcomers will last longer and the dissonance between Germany and the Visegrad Group will increase. There are no benefits to gain from it, except for Vladimir Putin.
The issue of immigrants and refugees is kindling European nations. Politicians have lost their senses, they are governed by their emotions. Mistakes of the past cannot be fixed and the results will be harmful for the European unity for the years ahead.
Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia, known as informal Visegrad Group (V4), reject refugee quotas system1 forced by Germany and France. This will complicate the relation within the European Union in the future, signs can already be seen.
Western media, particularly the German one, are leading the campaign against their eastern neighbors. Hungary is criticized and compared to Nazis2, while they are struggling to respect the Dublin Regulations3, the European law on asylum seekers. As we have learned from last financial crisis in the USA and the debt crisis in Greece; disregarding of previous determined principles are always leading to political tragedy.
Reports on increasing Russian activity in Syria are covered by rumors about reducing support for separatists from Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Vladimir Putin most likely will not risk the game on two fronts and will shift his military attention to the Middle-East. He does so not only due to threats related directly to Islamic State (IS) and to eventual downfall of Bashar al-Assad, but also because of the fact, that the road to a victory in Ukraine leads through Damascus and Latakia.
Since September 1st the ceasefire in the eastern Ukraine has been broadly respected by both sides of the conflict. However, reported single incidents of violation have been pointed out each other by rebels1 and Ukrainian army2. Also Contact Group failed so far to agree on the pullback of heavy weapons3. Quarrels on elections in Luhansk People’s Republic and Donetsk People’e Republic4 also show that political confusion will not be stopped.
Inconsistent statements of separatists leaders regarding local elections cast doubts, though. They are beating about the dates of elections, not knowing if October/November term would be better or February 21st 5. It could be a symptom of sliding ground from under feet, because Russia seems to leave the Ukraine conflict for now. Of course, political pressure will not be diluted – quite the reverse!