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Gefira #13 for investors: Europe’s future is about demographics and energy depletion Read more >>> Islam or nature, how the opponents of European migration policy escaped prosecution Read more >>> Italy to outmaneuver ECB with parallel currency Read more >>> We woke up another day and we found ourselves at war Read more >>> Heresies or Inexplicable Collective Behaviour Read more >>>

Gefira #13 for investors: Europe’s future is about demographics and energy depletion

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According to the media, our continent is beset with problems caused by the euro, Italian banks, the future of the European Union, Brexit, the rise of right-wing parties and the imminent threat of Russian invasion of the Baltic states or Poland. These are but petty or make-believe problems or, to put it in plain English, these are just narratives that the European establishment is using to explain its inability to avert the impending disaster and disintegration of the multi-ethnic societies.

The European governments relinquished their control over their borders and their monetary policy to Brussels (i.e. renounced sovereignty), which is run by unelected civil servants, so now they are not able to act. Neo-liberal privatization of such facilities as electricity companies, highways and railroads whose operation is often outsourced to foreign companies serving other interests than those of the European people exacerbates the lack of governance in Europe..

The EU establishment believes that the free markets and regulations will solve Europe’s energy problems. The transition to renewables is far from sufficient to replace traditional energy resources in the foreseeable future. Russia remains the largest energy provider as it satisfies 30% of Europe’s oil, 30% of Europe’s coal, and 40% of Europe’s gas demand.

Turkey is indispensable to Europeans if they want to be connected to alternative gas fields in the East, so they cannot afford to have hostile relations with the Ottomans in Ankara and the Tsars in Moscow. Yet, we know from history that the Europeans have always feared more their fellow Christians in Moscow than the Muslims from the Middle East. For some unknown reason they rather like to subjugate themselves to Islamists than have cordial relations with the Russian, even if dictatorial, rulers.

The European population is in decline, its fertility is 1.5. Every next generation will be 25% smaller. Judging by the numbers, it is clear that in the long run Europeans will cease to exist. With shrinking energy resources, a reduced European population (in 1950 it numbered 446 million) would not be a bad idea if it were not for Africa’s skyrocketing population growth and the fact that many Africans are relocating to Europe, giving up on their otherwise fertile continent which is rich in resources. While there is a lot of discussion about immigration, NGO’s are smuggling Africans into Europe on an industrial scale with the European establishment’s assent. Europe is on its way to start the biggest (apart from the Bolshevik one in Russia) social-engineering experiment in history, labelled by some as the “grand replacement”.

In Gefira #13 we discuss the future of Europe’s demographics and energy resources. We also focus our attention on big data. As the Internet and information technology is becoming more important than television, power struggle will not be limited to the real world, and since profiling, manipulation and hacking, cyberwar, cyber espionage and cyber subversion are part and parcel of today’s Machiavellian scheming, our Gefira team will cover it all in relation to a long-term investment perspective. Subscribe or Download


Islam or nature, how the opponents of European migration policy escaped prosecution

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Although the French society is based on laïcité, a full separation of state and church, Islamic attacks in France and the radicalization of the highly unemployable Islamic youth have prompted President François Hollande to call for an “Islam of France”,1)Hollande: Republic must create ‘Islam of France’ to respond to terror threat, CNN 2016-09-08.which aims at appealing to its believers to incorporate the revolutionary values on which the French society is based of liberté, égalité, fraternité into their religious faith.

The secular faith that all men are created equal is the bedrock of the thinking of the Western establishment and one of the postulates all Western sociology is founded on. This conviction is not only upheld by the so-called “left”, but it has become the cornerstone of Western economic theories. Present-day investors do not see ethnicity, culture, religion or race as a key factor in a country’s economic growth and progress. Rather, they believe that people are clean slates, that external factors alone contribute to their advancement and, such is the narrative, if countries open up their borders, allow free trade and implement the rule of law, then their populations pick up required skills, adopt Western solutions and with the aid of education set themselves on the path of development.

References   [ + ]

1. Hollande: Republic must create ‘Islam of France’ to respond to terror threat, CNN 2016-09-08.

Italy to outmaneuver ECB with parallel currency

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photo Petrus Christus , St Eligius in His Workshop [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
photo Petrus Christus , St Eligius in His Workshop [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
Italy is no stranger to financial crises. They came in all forms and shapes which included insolvent states, a chain reaction collapse of the banking system and a liquidity crisis of the then international currency, the golden Florentine florin. Without going too much into details, in 1345 the Kingdom of England and the government of Florence went insolvent; to pay for their respective wars against France and Verona they had borrowed enormous sums from the giants of banking of the time, the Bardi and the Peruzzi. Their inability to pay back resulted in a 1.5-million-florin hole and the subsequent bankruptcy of the two banks, which entailed a chain reaction that dragged down all the others.

Almost seven centuries later, Italy, together with Greece and many others, is again on the verge of insolvency, with the international banking system in dire straits, posed for another catastrophe. As if that was not enough, the euro, an overvalued currency for Italy and the weak economies of Spain, Portugal, France but also Finland, the austerity policy enforced by the European Commission acting under the pressure of the main gainer of the common currency, Germany; and the ECB’s completely ineffectual quantitative easing policy,1)QE in Europe is an embarrassment: 18 QE euros generate a growth of 1 euro, Gefira 2016-09-23. coupled with the regulatory system to top it all are unable to boost the real economy in Southern Europe. Conversely, all these elements prevent any kind of recovery and result in a perpetual state of stagnation.

References   [ + ]

1. QE in Europe is an embarrassment: 18 QE euros generate a growth of 1 euro, Gefira 2016-09-23.

We woke up another day and we found ourselves at war

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photo shutterstock.com
photo shutterstock.com
Wars are preceded by orchestrated incidents. It took the USS Maine to be sunk to allow the United States to enter a war against Spain; then RMS Lusitania had to be sunk to prod the United States to participate in World War One; World War Two required the sinking of a number of US warships at Pearl Harbor; the Gulf of Tonkin incident allowed Americans to intensify their presence in Vietnam; President Bush needed the twin towers of the World Trade Center to tumble down to have the right pretext for the war against Afghanistan; President Bush senior used the hearsay that Baghdad stored weapons of mass destruction to invade Iraq; President Clinton needed mass graves and concentration camps to give the poor Serbs a sound thrashing; President Barrack Hussein Obama almost began escalating war in Syria after reports on poison gas use against civilians; based on similar reports, President Donald Trump did not shy away from giving the order to launch missiles against President Assad’s troops. So it goes.

When you need to win support of the people for a war, you have to shock them into action. Hence reports of insidious attacks, heinous atrocities and use of prohibited weapons that the enemy has allegedly resorted to. The most potent of them all is the suffering-children card; it was used during World War One: German soldiers allegedly thrust their bayonets through Belgian children’s bodies’; it was used in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq: Iraqi soldiers allegedly disconnected incubators with new-born babies in Kuwait, thus bringing about their instant death; it was used to make Europeans accept the flood of the Third World masses: the visual media bombarded them with the picture of a drowned boy. Now the same trump card has been used by Trump, the president: he pours his heart out to the sorry plight of – how on earth otherwise – children.

Never mind the prospective detente with Russia; never mind the election promises of pulling America out of policing the world; never mind the gratuitousness of a poison gas attack: someone in Washington saw it fit to take action and action was taken. Qui prodest?


Heresies or Inexplicable Collective Behaviour

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photo Anglo-Saxon Migration in the 5th century By my work [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
photo Anglo-Saxon Migration in the 5th century By my work [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
As we watch the so-called migration crisis, we pose to ourselves questions. What’s the sense, what’s the purpose? We are told we need workforce, yet there are millions of unemployed young Europeans; we are told we are paying for the sins of the yesteryear of colonialism, yet drawing people from the Third World, we strip the countries of origin of brains and hands i.e. act as colonialists. We are told these are refugees, yet we must get down to work to integrate them as if refugees by definition were not people who plan on returning to their war-torn countries after the conflict is over. We are told the Third-World immigrants are enriching us, yet we observe street riots, crime rate increase, reinforced police units in our streets and a number of East European countries defending themselves from being blessed with this enrichment.


Africa’s gate to Europe: Operation Husky, again

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photo Karl Briullov Sacco di Roma 455 [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
photo Karl Briullov Sacco di Roma 455 [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
Guest Author: Daniel Moscardi

Vallombrosa is a unique place in Tuscany. Its founder, Saint Giovanni Gualberto, a Benedictine monk, chose this secluded place in the mountains 40 km east of Florence to lead a hermit-like existence, right after the year 1000, and with a restricted group of monks started his own monastic order, the Vallombrosani.

John Milton among many other travellers – found inspiration in Vallombrosa while traveling across Italy in 1638, and a marble inscription reminds tourists that here Milton put into writing his Paradise Lost. Vallombrosa is not a place for crowds; rather a place where to seek meditation and inspiration.

To me Vallombrosa represents memories from my childhood. It could be called a piece of my personal heimat, if you wish. Back in the 60’s, when a car was still a far-flung luxury for many Italian families of the working class, we would take the Sunday morning bus from the train station in Florence with some frugal lunch, and we were back in the city with the same bus in time for dinner. For me, as a child, that was the highlight of the week – or the month – as it was all that we could afford at the time as a holiday.


China – a powder keg

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photo ID1974 / Shutterstock.com
photo ID1974 / Shutterstock.com
The People’s Republic has 2,8 million troops at its disposal i.e. the world’s largest army. There are also 3,8 million reservists. For years China has been investing billions in its armed forces: in 2016 it was 216 billion dollars.1)Ranking der 15 Länder mit den weltweit höchsten Militärausgaben im Jahr 2015, de.statista.com.Only the United States can afford to spend more on armaments. The task that China has set itself is to be able to win regional wars, for China is in conflict with many of its neighbours.

A bone of contention in the high mountains
In July 2016 China’s ground forces encroached upon Indian territory,2)China marschiert über die indische Grenze ein – Indien reagiert mit Langmut, Epoch Time 28-07-2016.which was not an isolated event since the 1960 war on the Indian-Chinese border or rather a demarcation line that had been drawn by the withdrawing British Empire. As in 2005, India entered into a nuclear agreement with the United States, China perceived it as a hostile act. On the other hand India did not like the fact that China leased a whole island from the Maldives, where it intended to build a port for nuclear-powered submarines.3)Geheime Basis für Atom-U-Boote entdeckt, Spiegel Online 02-05-2008.The border conflict at the foot of the Karakorum should be seen as a part of a broader picture: Pakistan, India’s ally, has been battling against India in Kashmir for years.

References   [ + ]

1. Ranking der 15 Länder mit den weltweit höchsten Militärausgaben im Jahr 2015, de.statista.com.
2. China marschiert über die indische Grenze ein – Indien reagiert mit Langmut, Epoch Time 28-07-2016.
3. Geheime Basis für Atom-U-Boote entdeckt, Spiegel Online 02-05-2008.

Europe’s Last Stand?

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photo WladiM / Shutterstock.com
photo WladiM / Shutterstock.com

Bulgaria is torn between three forces. A third of the population is leaning towards the European Union, another third would like to have stronger ties with Russia, and some ten percent of the population are Turks, loyal to Erdoğan. All this is reflected in the results of the latest election that was held in this poorest country of the European Union.

On 26 March 2017 long-postponed elections were held in Bulgaria, and the pro-European GERB Party emerged victorious.1)Крайни резултати от парламентарни избори 2017, offnews.bg 2017-03-27.The Bulgarian Socialist Party, a successor to the former Bulgarian Communist Party, hence pro-Russian, came second. The DOST (Turkish for friend) Party, which is the representation of the Turkish minority in Bulgaria, won 8,44% of the vote.

References   [ + ]

1. Крайни резултати от парламентарни избори 2017, offnews.bg 2017-03-27.

Is China a Ukrainian ally?

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Waving flag of Ukraine and China
photo shutterstock.com/Aleksandar Mijatovic

China is taking cautious international steps, following its national interests. Much to the Western man’s regret, it did not let itself be dictated to how to respond to the Russian incorporation of Crimea. Still, China kept Ukrainian economy alive in the aftermath, thus strengthening the Ukrainian-Chinese cooperation.

The New Silk Road

As the EU and USA cannot finance all the infrastructural projects in Ukraine, the country is turning to China for help, which in turn is interested in Ukraine as an indispensable part of the New Silk Road. Already in 2013 former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych signed a number of agreements with China,1)Переломный визит Януковича в Китай: $30 млрд инвестиций и гарантированная квота для украинской продукции, Economics 2013-12-09.among them one that with the aid of China’s $13 billion envisaged turning Crimea into a huge transit hub. The Russian military actions thwarted these plans, which were later shifted to Southern Ukraine.

References   [ + ]

1. Переломный визит Януковича в Китай: $30 млрд инвестиций и гарантированная квота для украинской продукции, Economics 2013-12-09.

African migration to Italy booms with the aid of NGOs as EU “Open borders” policy continues

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Earlier this year, in January,1)Why the Italian government can’t resolve the problems of Mediterranean smuggling boats? Because it doesn’t want to, gefira.org 2 January 2017.we analysed how NGOs in collaboration with the Italian government had been shipping migrants from the Libyan shores to Italy and how it later evolved into the exploitation of migrants on the Italian farms and in the prostitution business in collusion with organized crime.

The first data available for the beginning of 2017 show that the business is booming even further: a 57% increase compared to the first months of 2016, which goes up to 81% for the whole winter period,2)Migrant rescues in Med hit three-year high, new data shows, telegraph.co.uk 5 March 2017.while the percentage of those transported by the NGOs ships has gone from 5% to 40% of the total in 2016, which becomes more than half in the last months of the year.3)Ong che salvano i migranti: due procure sospettano complicità con gli scafisti, tgcom24.mediaset.it 23 February 2017.NGOs are de facto replacing smugglers in the Mediterranean.

References   [ + ]

1. Why the Italian government can’t resolve the problems of Mediterranean smuggling boats? Because it doesn’t want to, gefira.org 2 January 2017.
2. Migrant rescues in Med hit three-year high, new data shows, telegraph.co.uk 5 March 2017.
3. Ong che salvano i migranti: due procure sospettano complicità con gli scafisti, tgcom24.mediaset.it 23 February 2017.

Patchwork family, tradition, religion, state, race: patchwork everything.

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Patchwork family, tradition, religion, state, race: patchwork everything.
photo f11photo / Shutterstock.com
The philosophers have only interpreted the world, in various ways. The point, however, is to change it. (Karl Marx)

The Frankfurt school united Marx and Freud to become the most influential thinkers of the 20th century left. (The Guardian)1)The Frankfurt school, part 1: why did Anders Breivik fear them? The Guardian 2013-03-25.

Marx had a dream. A dream of changing the capitalist society. With this dream he managed to inspire hundreds and thousands of intellectuals. Some of those intellectuals formulated their own proposals of implementing Marxian dream in real life. One of such proposals that turned out to be most attractive at the turn of the century was communism. After WWII, however, it became obvious that Marxism practised in communist countries not only failed to transform societies after the desired Marxist fashion but also suffered an economic defeat, whereas in western countries capitalism seemed to be thriving and the affluence placated the working class. Latter day Marxists came to the realisation that workers no longer made the revolutionary force in modern western societies and began looking for a new proletariat. The dream of creating a brave new world with a new awareness was still waiting to come true.

References   [ + ]

1. The Frankfurt school, part 1: why did Anders Breivik fear them? The Guardian 2013-03-25.

Euro-hubris punished: how Finland became the last victim of the euro

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100 markkaa
photo By Suomen Pankki (banknote), European Central Bank (photo) (Suomen Pankki) [ECB decisions ECB/2003/4 and ECB/2003/5 or Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
It was just 2011 when the Finnish government, one of Greece’s many creditors, demanded that Athens put one of its national symbols, the Parthenon, as collateral for the rescue loans package.1)Finland’s demands for collateral could leave Greek bailout in ruins, The Guardian 2011-08-28.
Fast forward to 2015: while the European Union leaders humiliate the Greek democracy by imposing even harsher austerity measures than the ones previously rejected in a referendum, even despite the fact that the IMF admitted having miscalculated the Keynesian multiplier for Greece and thus completely underestimated the catastrophic consequences of austerity,2)Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers, IMF Working Paper 2013.Finland is no longer part of the group of “virtuous countries”: unlike Greece, its public finances are fine, however the sources of its economic strength, tech colossus Nokia is in a deep crisis,3)Finland: The sick man of Europe? BBC 2016-02-29.unable to keep up in innovation with its competitors, Apple and Samsung. The once national pride of the Finns, accounting at its peak for 20% of the Finnish exports,4)As Goes Nokia, So Goes Finland? Bloomberg 2013-09-03.will end up being overtaken by foreigners (Microsoft). To worsen the conditions of the Finish economy, the EU leaders opted for a trade war against one of Finland’s main trade partners, its neighbor Russia, over the Ukraine crisis.

References   [ + ]

1. Finland’s demands for collateral could leave Greek bailout in ruins, The Guardian 2011-08-28.
2. Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers, IMF Working Paper 2013.
3. Finland: The sick man of Europe? BBC 2016-02-29.
4. As Goes Nokia, So Goes Finland? Bloomberg 2013-09-03.